Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AVA is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$95.95
Method range
$29.11 – $95.95
median $40.14
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $95.95 | +126.20% |
| Exit multiple | $39.78 | -6.23% |
| Analyst target | $40.50 | -4.53% |
| Graham number | $29.11 | -31.37% |
- Forward DCF$95.95
- Exit multiple$39.78
- Analyst target$40.50
- Graham number$29.11
Stock price
$42.42
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.35
3Y FCF CAGR
—
Fair value @ hist. growth
$17.85
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
18.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -137.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 8% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 18.8% | 17.1% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 9.8% |
| 5.0% | 18.8% | 17.1% | 15.2% | 12.8% | 9.8% |
| 5.7% | 21.6% | 20.2% | 18.6% | 16.8% | 14.6% |
| 6.7% | 24.9% | 23.8% | 22.6% | 21.2% | 19.6% |
| 7.7% | 28.0% | 27.0% | 26.0% | 24.9% | 23.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.31
Low vs growth
Net debt
$3.4B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.23
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Avista (AVA) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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