American States Water (AWR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.24), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, AWR sits noticeably below the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 17, 2026 (±5 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.24-0.21 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.24 | -0.21 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.21% | +0.47pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.91% | +0.93pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 11 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±5 days.
| Dividend | $0.50 |
| Per-event yield | 0.69% |
| Annualized yield | 2.66% |
| Previously paid | Feb 23, 2026 ($0.50) |
| Last record date | Feb 23, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 5, 2026 |
AWR Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for American States Water (AWR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.50 | -0.33% | $72.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.89% | +3.23% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.07% | $75.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.18% | -1.59% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -1.05% | $75.40 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.92% | +1.01% | |
| Q2 | $0.47 | -0.59% | $79.58 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.75% | -0.28% | |
| Q1 | $0.47 | -1.07% | $74.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.61% | +5.44% | |
| Q4 | $0.47 | 0.27% | $83.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.26% | +2.21% | |
| Q3 | $0.47 | -0.42% | $82.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.06% | -1.70% | |
| Q2 | $0.43 | -0.27% | $78.80 | >30 | no | no | -10.10% | -5.43% | |
| Q1 | $0.43 | -0.80% | $77.20 | 2 | yes | yes | -9.04% | -6.13% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | 2.42% | $77.67 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.89% | +2.54% | |
| Q3 | $0.43 | -0.37% | $89.12 | >30 | no | no | -4.90% | -4.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | -0.95% | $91.15 | 11 | no | yes | -5.01% | -3.32% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | 0.16% | $92.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.91% | -2.42% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -1.40% | $92.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.40% | +5.77% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | 0.10% | $87.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.10% | +1.52% | |
| Q2 | $0.36 | 0.39% | $77.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.10% | +2.52% | |
| Q1 | $0.36 | 0.08% | $86.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.71% | -0.40% | |
| Q4 | $0.36 | -0.01% | $93.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.79% | +3.55% | |
| Q3 | $0.36 | -0.08% | $88.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.25% | +3.42% | |
| Q2 | $0.34 | -0.01% | $78.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.43% | +0.21% |
- +3.23%
- -1.59%
- +1.01%
- -0.28%
- +5.44%
- +2.21%
- -1.70%
- -5.43%
- -6.13%
- +2.54%
- -4.11%
- -3.32%
- -2.42%
- +5.77%
- +1.52%
- +2.52%
- -0.40%
- +3.55%
- +3.42%
- +0.21%
AWR Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
AWR Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with AWR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $100.00
- After-tax dividend
- $65.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$14.59
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$50.41
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.35%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~17.4%
AWR Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical AWR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · AWR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.43% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.43% | |
| -3.32% | |
| -4.11% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.56% | |
| -5.43% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.69% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.