Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AWR is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$104.39
Method range
$21.65 – $104.39
median $86.27
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $104.39 | +19.94% |
| Exit multiple | $83.04 | -4.59% |
| Analyst target | $89.50 | +2.84% |
| Graham number | $21.65 | -75.13% |
- Forward DCF$104.39
- Exit multiple$83.04
- Analyst target$89.50
- Graham number$21.65
Stock price
$87.03
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.58
3Y FCF CAGR
—
Fair value @ hist. growth
$18.05
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
28.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -382.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 8% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | 23.9% | 22.5% | 20.8% | 18.8% | 16.4% |
| 6.6% | 27.5% | 26.3% | 25.0% | 23.5% | 21.8% |
| 7.6% | 30.7% | 29.7% | 28.6% | 27.4% | 26.1% |
| 8.6% | 33.5% | 32.7% | 31.8% | 30.8% | 29.7% |
| 9.6% | 36.2% | 35.5% | 34.7% | 33.8% | 32.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
9.20
Demanding vs growth
Net debt
$924M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.58
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
American States Water (AWR) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks
- Dividend Profile2.32% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History3 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.