Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what AWR is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$105.61
Method range
$21.65 – $105.61
median $86.87
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $105.61 | +34.76% |
| Exit multiple | $84.24 | +7.49% |
| Analyst target | $89.50 | +14.20% |
| Graham number | $21.65 | -72.38% |
- Forward DCF$105.61
- Exit multiple$84.24
- Analyst target$89.50
- Graham number$21.65
Stock price
$78.37
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.58
3Y FCF CAGR
—
Fair value @ hist. growth
$18.27
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
27.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -329.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 8% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | 22.3% | 20.9% | 19.2% | 17.2% | 14.8% |
| 6.5% | 25.9% | 24.7% | 23.4% | 21.9% | 20.2% |
| 7.5% | 29.0% | 28.0% | 27.0% | 25.8% | 24.5% |
| 8.5% | 31.9% | 31.0% | 30.1% | 29.1% | 28.0% |
| 9.5% | 34.5% | 33.8% | 33.0% | 32.1% | 31.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
9.14
Demanding vs growth
Net debt
$924M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.59
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
American States Water (AWR) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation