Becton, Dickinson and (BDX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.38), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, BDX sits roughly in line with the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 8, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.38+0.23 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.38 | +0.23 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.26% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.32% | +2.09pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 20 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $1.05 |
| Per-event yield | 0.63% |
| Annualized yield | 2.46% |
| Previously paid | Mar 10, 2026 ($1.05) |
| Last record date | Mar 10, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 31, 2026 |
BDX Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Becton, Dickinson and (BDX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.05 | -0.60% | $165.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.08% | -1.67% | |
| Q4 | $1.05 | -1.00% | $152.47 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.79% | +3.86% | |
| Q3 | $1.04 | -0.74% | $118.91 | 20 | no | yes | -3.76% | -2.58% | |
| Q2 | $1.04 | 0.31% | $107.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.43% | +0.19% | |
| Q1 | $1.04 | -0.46% | $141.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.30% | -0.01% | |
| Q4 | $1.04 | -0.45% | $135.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.54% | +4.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.95 | 0.00% | $143.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.45% | +1.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.95 | -0.54% | $148.72 | >30 | no | no | -4.69% | -2.64% | |
| Q1 | $0.95 | 0.63% | $145.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.46% | +1.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.95 | -0.08% | $144.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.80% | +2.83% | |
| Q3 | $0.91 | 0.12% | $164.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.84% | -0.21% | |
| Q2 | $0.91 | -0.78% | $155.90 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.62% | +2.14% | |
| Q1 | $0.91 | 0.10% | $145.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.82% | +1.80% | |
| Q4 | $0.91 | -0.60% | $152.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.75% | +2.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.87 | -0.57% | $160.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.15% | -0.33% | |
| Q2 | $0.87 | -0.40% | $159.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.26% | -7.64% | |
| Q1 | $0.87 | 0.38% | $159.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.14% | -1.10% | |
| Q4 | $0.87 | -0.15% | $148.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.05% | +4.94% | |
| Q3 | $0.83 | -0.03% | $155.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.35% | +2.03% | |
| Q2 | $0.83 | 0.14% | $144.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.94% | +1.36% |
- -1.67%
- +3.86%
- -2.58%
- +0.19%
- -0.01%
- +4.20%
- +1.24%
- -2.64%
- +1.33%
- +2.83%
- -0.21%
- +2.14%
- +1.80%
- +2.24%
- -0.33%
- -7.64%
- -1.10%
- +4.94%
- +2.03%
- +1.36%
BDX Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
BDX Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with BDX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $210.00
- After-tax dividend
- $136.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$33.09
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$103.41
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.31%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~15.7%
BDX Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical BDX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · BDX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.57% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.65% | |
| -2.64% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.97% | |
| -2.58% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.63% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.