CARR dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Carrier Global (CARR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.12), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CARR sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 31, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.12
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.12 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.57% | -0.23pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.67% | +1.35pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 12 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$0.24
Per-event yield
0.36%
Annualized yield
1.42%
Previously paid
Jul 21, 2026 ($0.24)
Last record date
Jul 21, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 10, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Carrier Global (CARR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.24 | 0.24% | $66.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.81% | -5.34% | |
| Q2 | $0.24 | -0.67% | $67.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.24% | -2.22% | |
| Q1 | $0.24 | -2.35% | $56.19 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.79% | +1.99% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | -1.60% | $58.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.36% | -2.83% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | 0.22% | $76.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.30% | +4.93% | |
| Q2 | $0.23 | 0.29% | $69.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.77% | +2.67% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | 0.00% | $66.69 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.00% | +2.65% | |
| Q4 | $0.19 | -0.43% | $72.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.81% | -0.16% | |
| Q2 | $0.19 | -0.56% | $64.22 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.02% | -1.48% | |
| Q2 | $0.19 | 0.61% | $61.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.47% | +7.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.19 | -0.72% | $56.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.86% | +1.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.19 | 3.98% | $47.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.89% | +6.62% | |
| Q2 | $0.19 | -0.48% | $48.22 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.99% | +3.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.19 | -1.07% | $41.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.97% | +4.68% | |
| Q4 | $0.19 | 0.87% | $41.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.31% | +1.61% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | 2.45% | $37.14 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.81% | +6.41% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -1.83% | $35.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +2.66% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | -9.89% | $40.26 | 12 | no | yes | -10.01% | -5.34% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -0.50% | $52.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.92% | +3.01% | |
| Q4 | $0.12 | 0.09% | $53.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.72% | -0.13% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with CARR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical CARR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.07%
Win rate (20 trades)
95%
Cumulative P&L
+1.36%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+32.67%
Best event
+0.45%
Worst event
-5.34%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CARR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.23% | |
| +0.29% | |
| -5.34% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.36% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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