Casey's General Stores (CASY) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.07), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CASY sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jul 31, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.65.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.07-0.14 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.07 | -0.14 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.39% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.80% | +1.71pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 5 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.65 |
| Per-event yield | 0.08% |
| Annualized yield | 0.30% |
| Previously paid | May 1, 2026 ($0.57) |
| Last record date | May 1, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 15, 2026 |
CASY Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Casey's General Stores (CASY). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.57 | -0.02% | $822.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.14% | +4.61% | |
| Q1 | $0.57 | -0.91% | $611.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.30% | +8.20% | |
| Q4 | $0.57 | -1.13% | $518.54 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.08% | +3.01% | |
| Q3 | $0.57 | -0.14% | $520.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.50% | -0.11% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -0.44% | $462.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.92% | -2.07% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -2.03% | $421.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.56% | +2.58% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.13% | $394.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.17% | +4.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | 0.30% | $387.84 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.91% | -3.05% | |
| Q2 | $0.43 | -0.56% | $323.27 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.97% | +2.17% | |
| Q1 | $0.43 | -0.52% | $274.41 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.84% | +0.44% | |
| Q4 | $0.43 | 0.00% | $270.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.47% | +1.53% | |
| Q3 | $0.43 | 0.01% | $251.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.47% | -1.58% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | 0.02% | $227.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.15% | +3.01% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | 0.36% | $230.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.99% | -2.28% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | -0.27% | $231.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.45% | -0.03% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | -0.32% | $202.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.91% | +2.41% | |
| Q2 | $0.35 | -0.47% | $206.73 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.58% | -4.38% | |
| Q1 | $0.35 | -0.68% | $187.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.71% | -1.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.35 | -0.40% | $188.50 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.40% | +7.09% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | -0.49% | $197.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.63% | -1.01% |
- +4.61%
- +8.20%
- +3.01%
- -0.11%
- -2.07%
- +2.58%
- +4.91%
- -3.05%
- +2.17%
- +0.44%
- +1.53%
- -1.58%
- +3.01%
- -2.28%
- -0.03%
- +2.41%
- -4.38%
- -1.50%
- +7.09%
- -1.01%
CASY Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
CASY Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CASY's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $130.00
- After-tax dividend
- $84.50
- Slippage round-trip
- -$164.43
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- $-79.93
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.05%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- -0.05%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~-2.4%
CASY Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CASY ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CASY (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.17% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.12% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.09% | |
| +0.07% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.