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Fair Value for Casey's General Stores (CASY)

See growth priced into Casey's General Stores (CASY): reverse DCF, implied rate vs history and analysts, FCF view. Free intrinsic value calculator for education.

Fair value (multi-method)

Four independent methods triangulate what CASY is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.

Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)

$1,249.27

Margin of safety
+31.42% vs current price $856.74

Method range

$102.61 $1,249.27

median $705.68

Methods disagree

Valuation methods

Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.

  • Forward DCF$1,249.27
  • Exit multiple$467.13
  • Analyst target$944.23
  • Graham number$102.61

Stock price

$856.74

FCF / share (TTM)

$5.60

3Y FCF CAGR

11.8%

Fair value @ hist. growth

$226.83

This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.

Implied FCF growth

29.4%

per year over your projection horizon

Premium vs DCF

Margin of safety -277.7% vs hist-growth DCF

Historical 3Y CAGR

11.8%

Your model implies

29.4%

Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.

Model inputs

Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.

Discount rate (cost of equity proxy)7.8%
Terminal growth2.50%
Projection years10 yr
FCF growth per year (supplemental projection)12%
3Y CAGR 12%

Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 12% annual growth.

Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions

Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.

Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
5.8%24.9%23.5%21.9%20.0%17.8%
6.8%28.4%27.2%25.9%24.5%22.9%
7.8%31.5%30.5%29.4%28.3%27.0%
8.8%34.3%33.5%32.6%31.6%30.5%
9.8%36.9%36.2%35.4%34.6%33.7%
Color≤ historical CAGRModerate premiumHigh premium (≥ 15pp above hist)Your inputs

Historical multiples

Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.

P/EToday42.6· at high
5Y low19.4
Median23.7
5Y high42.6
P/SToday1.7· at high
5Y low0.6
Median0.8
5Y high1.7
EV/EBITDAToday23.7· at high
5Y low10.4
Median12.5
5Y high23.7

PEG

1.82

Fair vs growth

Net debt

$2.38B

Total debt − cash

Beta

0.62

Vs market benchmark

Frequently asked questions