Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CASY is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,249.27
Method range
$102.61 – $1,249.27
median $705.68
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,249.27 | +45.82% |
| Exit multiple | $467.13 | -45.48% |
| Analyst target | $944.23 | +10.21% |
| Graham number | $102.61 | -88.02% |
- Forward DCF$1,249.27
- Exit multiple$467.13
- Analyst target$944.23
- Graham number$102.61
Stock price
$856.74
FCF / share (TTM)
$5.60
3Y FCF CAGR
11.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$226.83
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
29.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -277.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
11.8%
Your model implies
29.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 12% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | 24.9% | 23.5% | 21.9% | 20.0% | 17.8% |
| 6.8% | 28.4% | 27.2% | 25.9% | 24.5% | 22.9% |
| 7.8% | 31.5% | 30.5% | 29.4% | 28.3% | 27.0% |
| 8.8% | 34.3% | 33.5% | 32.6% | 31.6% | 30.5% |
| 9.8% | 36.9% | 36.2% | 35.4% | 34.6% | 33.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.82
Fair vs growth
Net debt
$2.38B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.62
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Casey's General Stores (CASY) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks1.22% TTM
- Dividend Profile0.27% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History4 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.