Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CASY is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$963.83
Method range
$90.68 – $963.83
median $601.56
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $963.83 | +26.50% |
| Exit multiple | $447.56 | -41.26% |
| Analyst target | $755.56 | -0.83% |
| Graham number | $90.68 | -88.10% |
- Forward DCF$963.83
- Exit multiple$447.56
- Analyst target$755.56
- Graham number$90.68
Stock price
$761.91
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.05
3Y FCF CAGR
12.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$90.43
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
41.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -742.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
12.7%
Your model implies
41.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 13% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | 36.7% | 35.1% | 33.2% | 31.1% | 28.5% |
| 6.7% | 40.6% | 39.3% | 37.8% | 36.2% | 34.4% |
| 7.7% | 44.1% | 43.0% | 41.8% | 40.5% | 39.0% |
| 8.7% | 47.3% | 46.3% | 45.3% | 44.2% | 43.0% |
| 9.7% | 50.3% | 49.4% | 48.5% | 47.6% | 46.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$2.6B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.62
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Casey's General Stores (CASY) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation