CAT dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 90% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Caterpillar (CAT) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.18), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CAT sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 19, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
90%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.18
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.18 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.29% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.14% | -0.12pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 13 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$1.63
Per-event yield
0.19%
Annualized yield
0.71%
Previously paid
Jul 20, 2026 ($1.63)
Last record date
Jul 20, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 19, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Caterpillar (CAT). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $1.63 | 1.10% | $880.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.84% | -0.61% | |
| Q2 | $1.51 | -0.47% | $794.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.98% | +4.49% | |
| Q1 | $1.51 | -0.76% | $646.89 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.27% | -1.00% | |
| Q4 | $1.51 | 0.47% | $527.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.20% | +0.28% | |
| Q3 | $1.51 | 0.85% | $413.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.94% | +5.01% | |
| Q2 | $1.41 | -1.67% | $294.25 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.01% | +4.83% | |
| Q1 | $1.41 | 1.29% | $386.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.82% | +1.47% | |
| Q4 | $1.41 | -0.40% | $393.86 | 13 | no | yes | -6.77% | -0.47% | |
| Q3 | $1.41 | 0.11% | $347.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.62% | -0.49% | |
| Q2 | $1.30 | 0.10% | $357.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.01% | -3.70% | |
| Q1 | $1.30 | 0.15% | $281.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.05% | +6.68% | |
| Q4 | $1.30 | -0.62% | $252.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.52% | -5.15% | |
| Q3 | $1.30 | -1.39% | $263.81 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.65% | -1.59% | |
| Q2 | $1.20 | -0.72% | $222.27 | 2 | yes | yes | -8.20% | -1.02% | |
| Q1 | $1.20 | -0.93% | $252.82 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.37% | +4.15% | |
| Q4 | $1.20 | -0.45% | $180.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.74% | +22.16% | |
| Q3 | $1.20 | 0.24% | $173.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.35% | +5.15% | |
| Q2 | $1.11 | -1.79% | $232.57 | >30 | no | no | -13.14% | -9.00% | |
| Q1 | $1.11 | -0.09% | $229.87 | >30 | no | no | -15.31% | -6.29% | |
| Q4 | $1.11 | -0.74% | $202.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.08% | +1.47% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
Pre-filled with CAT's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical CAT ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.42%
Win rate (20 trades)
85%
Cumulative P&L
-8.50%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+340.75%
Best event
+0.69%
Worst event
-9.00%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CAT (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.55% | |
| -6.29% | |
| -9.00% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.41% | |
| -0.47% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.19% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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