Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CAT is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,165.33
Method range
$70.60 – $1,165.33
median $630.67
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,165.33 | +28.87% |
| Exit multiple | $379.13 | -58.07% |
| Analyst target | $882.20 | -2.44% |
| Graham number | $70.60 | -92.19% |
- Forward DCF$1,165.33
- Exit multiple$379.13
- Analyst target$882.20
- Graham number$70.60
Stock price
$904.28
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.34
3Y FCF CAGR
26.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$170.97
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
51.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -428.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
26.3%
Your model implies
51.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 26% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.7% | 48.0% | 47.3% | 46.5% | 45.7% | 44.8% |
| 11.7% | 50.6% | 49.9% | 49.2% | 48.5% | 47.7% |
| 12.7% | 53.0% | 52.4% | 51.8% | 51.1% | 50.4% |
| 13.7% | 55.4% | 54.8% | 54.3% | 53.7% | 53.0% |
| 14.7% | 57.7% | 57.2% | 56.6% | 56.1% | 55.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
4.74
Demanding vs growth
Net debt
$33.4B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.63
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Caterpillar (CAT) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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