CF dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
CF Industries Holdings (CF) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.17), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CF sits roughly in line with the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 14, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.60.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.17
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.17 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.37% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.87% | in line with sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 6 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.60
Per-event yield
0.49%
Annualized yield
1.78%
Previously paid
May 15, 2026 ($0.50)
Last record date
May 15, 2026
Last payment date
May 29, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for CF Industries Holdings (CF). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.50 | 1.00% | $122.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.51% | -0.63% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | -0.87% | $94.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.13% | +1.90% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | -0.77% | $84.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.31% | -6.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -0.76% | $85.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.99% | +2.04% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -0.72% | $85.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.08% | +4.00% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | 0.41% | $81.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.22% | -4.24% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | 0.20% | $85.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.08% | +5.31% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | 0.37% | $80.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.48% | -1.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -0.39% | $74.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.43% | +6.49% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | 0.23% | $77.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.17% | +4.13% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -0.35% | $79.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.23% | -3.71% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -2.37% | $79.89 | 6 | no | yes | -9.38% | -0.45% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | 0.03% | $67.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.55% | -0.83% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -1.06% | $86.85 | 3 | yes | yes | -6.62% | -1.21% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -0.53% | $102.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.51% | +0.34% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.94% | $102.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.50% | +1.49% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | 2.23% | $98.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.03% | -2.47% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -1.63% | $76.74 | 4 | yes | yes | -12.76% | -3.40% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -0.52% | $63.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.77% | +2.65% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | -0.96% | $49.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.91% | -8.69% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with CF's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical CF ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.48%
Win rate (20 trades)
95%
Cumulative P&L
+9.60%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+173.18%
Best event
+0.67%
Worst event
-0.45%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CF (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.61% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.60% | |
| -0.45% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.41% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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