Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CF is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$6,211.27
Method range
$55.76 – $6,211.27
median $135.24
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $6,211.27 | +4,777.32% |
| Exit multiple | $160.48 | +26.01% |
| Analyst target | $110.00 | -13.62% |
| Graham number | $55.76 | -56.22% |
- Forward DCF$6,211.27
- Exit multiple$160.48
- Analyst target$110.00
- Graham number$55.76
Stock price
$127.35
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.77
3Y FCF CAGR
0.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$37.54
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
15.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -239.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
0.6%
Your model implies
15.6%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 1% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 12.4% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 6.8% | 4.0% |
| 5.6% | 14.6% | 13.3% | 11.8% | 10.1% | 7.9% |
| 6.6% | 17.8% | 16.8% | 15.6% | 14.3% | 12.8% |
| 7.6% | 20.7% | 19.8% | 18.8% | 17.8% | 16.6% |
| 8.6% | 23.3% | 22.5% | 21.7% | 20.8% | 19.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.15
Low vs growth
Net debt
$1.97B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.39
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
CF Industries Holdings (CF) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks8.11% TTM
- Dividend Profile1.57% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History1 split
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.