Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CF is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$6,524.24
Method range
$55.76 – $6,524.24
median $134.23
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $6,524.24 | +5,648.73% |
| Exit multiple | $159.02 | +40.12% |
| Analyst target | $109.44 | -3.57% |
| Graham number | $55.76 | -50.87% |
- Forward DCF$6,524.24
- Exit multiple$159.02
- Analyst target$109.44
- Graham number$55.76
Stock price
$113.49
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.77
3Y FCF CAGR
0.6%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$39.02
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
13.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -190.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
0.6%
Your model implies
13.6%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 1% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 2.7% |
| 5.5% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 5.7% |
| 6.5% | 15.9% | 14.8% | 13.6% | 12.3% | 10.7% |
| 7.5% | 18.7% | 17.8% | 16.9% | 15.8% | 14.6% |
| 8.5% | 21.3% | 20.5% | 19.7% | 18.8% | 17.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.15
Low vs growth
Net debt
$2.0B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.38
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
CF Industries Holdings (CF) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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