Church & Dwight Co. (CHD) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.14), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CHD sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 14, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.14-0.24 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.14 | -0.24 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.00% | +0.64pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 75% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -1.86% | +2.26pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 6 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.31 |
| Per-event yield | 0.31% |
| Annualized yield | 1.28% |
| Previously paid | Feb 13, 2026 ($0.31) |
| Last record date | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 2, 2026 |
CHD Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Church & Dwight Co. (CHD). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.31 | 0.19% | $100.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.82% | +5.57% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | 0.14% | $84.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.70% | -0.74% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | 0.31% | $92.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.97% | +2.93% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | 0.10% | $93.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.59% | +2.52% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | -0.47% | $107.53 | 6 | no | yes | -4.18% | +0.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | 0.02% | $107.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.67% | +3.99% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | 0.16% | $100.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.46% | +2.43% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | -0.57% | $107.15 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.03% | +0.18% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -0.24% | $97.88 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.83% | +2.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.27 | 0.20% | $90.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.20% | +2.38% | |
| Q3 | $0.27 | -0.05% | $95.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.80% | -3.40% | |
| Q2 | $0.27 | -0.33% | $96.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.56% | -1.12% | |
| Q1 | $0.27 | 0.55% | $83.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +1.15% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | 0.07% | $74.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.31% | +4.55% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | 0.03% | $87.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.07% | +1.57% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | -0.12% | $97.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.02% | -8.88% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | -0.03% | $97.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.13% | -0.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | 0.07% | $90.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.56% | +2.43% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | 0.04% | $84.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.91% | +2.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -0.53% | $87.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.89% | +0.27% |
- +5.57%
- -0.74%
- +2.93%
- +2.52%
- +0.33%
- +3.99%
- +2.43%
- +0.18%
- +2.09%
- +2.38%
- -3.40%
- -1.12%
- +1.15%
- +4.55%
- +1.57%
- -8.88%
- -0.94%
- +2.43%
- +2.31%
- +0.27%
CHD Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
CHD Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CHD's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $62.00
- After-tax dividend
- $40.30
- Slippage round-trip
- -$20.00
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$20.30
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.10%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~5.1%
CHD Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CHD ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CHD (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.29% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.31% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.