Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CHD is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$54.64
Method range
$19.08 – $107.46
median $79.67
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $54.64 | -43.52% |
| Exit multiple | $107.46 | +11.08% |
| Analyst target | $104.70 | +8.23% |
| Graham number | $19.08 | -80.27% |
- Forward DCF$54.64
- Exit multiple$107.46
- Analyst target$104.70
- Graham number$19.08
Stock price
$96.74
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.60
3Y FCF CAGR
6.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$19.15
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
27.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -405.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
6.3%
Your model implies
27.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 6% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 22.4% | 20.7% | 18.7% | 16.2% | 13.1% |
| 5.9% | 26.0% | 24.6% | 23.0% | 21.2% | 19.1% |
| 6.9% | 29.4% | 28.3% | 27.0% | 25.7% | 24.1% |
| 7.9% | 32.5% | 31.5% | 30.5% | 29.4% | 28.1% |
| 8.9% | 35.3% | 34.5% | 33.6% | 32.6% | 31.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.49
Low vs growth
Net debt
$1.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.47
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Church & Dwight Co. (CHD) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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