Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CMG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$169.34
Method range
$3.12 – $169.34
median $48.07
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $169.34 | +477.17% |
| Exit multiple | $53.08 | +80.91% |
| Analyst target | $43.06 | +46.76% |
| Graham number | $3.12 | -89.37% |
- Forward DCF$169.34
- Exit multiple$53.08
- Analyst target$43.06
- Graham number$3.12
Stock price
$29.34
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.36
3Y FCF CAGR
16.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$14.36
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
26.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -104.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
16.3%
Your model implies
26.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 16% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | 22.5% | 21.6% | 20.6% | 19.6% | 18.4% |
| 8.7% | 25.1% | 24.3% | 23.5% | 22.6% | 21.6% |
| 9.7% | 27.5% | 26.9% | 26.1% | 25.4% | 24.5% |
| 10.7% | 29.8% | 29.2% | 28.6% | 27.9% | 27.2% |
| 11.7% | 32.0% | 31.5% | 30.9% | 30.3% | 29.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$9.5B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.03
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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