Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what CMG is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$176.30
Method range
$3.12 – $176.30
median $48.03
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $176.30 | +447.52% |
| Exit multiple | $53.25 | +65.38% |
| Analyst target | $42.80 | +32.92% |
| Graham number | $3.12 | -90.31% |
- Forward DCF$176.30
- Exit multiple$53.25
- Analyst target$42.80
- Graham number$3.12
Stock price
$32.20
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.36
3Y FCF CAGR
16.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$14.88
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
26.9%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -116.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
16.3%
Your model implies
26.9%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 16% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.5% | 23.1% | 22.2% | 21.2% | 20.1% | 18.8% |
| 8.5% | 25.8% | 25.0% | 24.2% | 23.3% | 22.2% |
| 9.5% | 28.3% | 27.6% | 26.9% | 26.1% | 25.2% |
| 10.5% | 30.7% | 30.1% | 29.4% | 28.7% | 28.0% |
| 11.5% | 32.9% | 32.4% | 31.8% | 31.2% | 30.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$9.5B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.96
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.