COST dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Costco (COST) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.15), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, COST sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 23, 2026 (±5 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.15
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.15 | -0.23 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.11% | +0.54pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 70% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -1.75% | +2.24pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 12 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±5 days.
Dividend
$1.47
Per-event yield
0.16%
Annualized yield
0.59%
Previously paid
Jul 24, 2026 ($1.47)
Last record date
Jul 24, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 7, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Costco (COST). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $1.47 | -0.11% | $926.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.52% | +2.95% | |
| Q2 | $1.47 | 0.08% | $1,014.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.90% | -0.42% | |
| Q1 | $1.30 | -0.43% | $952.89 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.37% | +5.20% | |
| Q4 | $1.30 | -0.43% | $920.18 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.29% | +0.42% | |
| Q3 | $1.30 | -0.01% | $939.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.42% | +4.54% | |
| Q2 | $1.30 | 0.88% | $999.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.61% | +1.04% | |
| Q1 | $1.16 | -0.38% | $1,050.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.50% | +2.10% | |
| Q4 | $1.16 | 0.01% | $874.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.78% | +8.10% | |
| Q3 | $1.16 | 0.25% | $815.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.81% | +0.89% | |
| Q2 | $1.16 | 0.47% | $723.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.31% | +1.34% | |
| Q1 | $1.02 | -0.13% | $694.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.49% | +4.36% | |
| Q4 | $15.00 | -1.77% | $674.62 | 12 | no | yes | -5.06% | -1.67% | |
| Q4 | $1.02 | -0.05% | $556.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.86% | +1.35% | |
| Q3 | $1.02 | -0.29% | $540.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.90% | +1.75% | |
| Q2 | $1.02 | -0.23% | $490.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.84% | +2.62% | |
| Q1 | $0.90 | 1.23% | $517.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.35% | -3.16% | |
| Q4 | $0.90 | 0.07% | $499.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.00% | -2.45% | |
| Q3 | $0.90 | -0.39% | $522.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.39% | +4.19% | |
| Q2 | $0.90 | 0.25% | $554.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.96% | -6.47% | |
| Q1 | $0.79 | -1.18% | $522.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.94% | -0.53% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with COST's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical COST ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.06%
Win rate (20 trades)
95%
Cumulative P&L
+1.29%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+86.06%
Best event
+0.21%
Worst event
-1.67%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · COST (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.15% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.18% | |
| -1.67% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.11% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.16% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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