Costco (COST) seasonality heatmap
Returns across monthly, quarterly, and yearly periods. Cell color encodes signed magnitude; the scale auto-fits each table.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | +9.2% | +7.5% | -1.4% | +1.7% | -5.6% | +2.7% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | +6.9% | +7.1% | -9.8% | +5.2% | +4.7% | -4.8% | -5.1% | +0.5% | -1.9% | -1.4% | +0.2% | -5.6% |
| 2024 | +5.3% | +7.2% | -1.5% | -1.2% | +12.0% | +5.0% | -3.2% | +8.6% | -0.7% | -1.4% | +11.3% | -5.7% |
| 2023 | +12.0% | -5.1% | +2.6% | +1.3% | +1.9% | +5.2% | +4.1% | -1.8% | +2.9% | -2.2% | +7.5% | +13.9% |
| 2022 | -11.0% | +3.0% | +10.9% | -7.5% | -12.3% | +2.8% | +13.1% | -3.5% | -9.5% | +6.4% | +7.5% | -15.3% |
| 2021 | -6.5% | -5.9% | +6.5% | +5.8% | +1.7% | +4.6% | +8.8% | +6.0% | -1.3% | +9.6% | +9.7% | +5.2% |
| 2020 | +3.9% | -7.8% | +1.4% | +6.5% | +1.8% | -1.7% | +7.6% | +6.8% | +2.1% | +0.9% | +9.5% | -1.3% |
| 2019 | +5.4% | +2.2% | +10.7% | +1.4% | -2.2% | +10.3% | +4.3% | +7.2% | -2.3% | +3.3% | +0.9% | -2.0% |
| 2018 | +4.7% | -1.8% | -1.3% | +4.6% | +0.8% | +5.4% | +4.7% | +6.9% | +0.8% | -2.7% | +1.4% | -11.9% |
| 2017 | +2.4% | +8.4% | -5.4% | +5.9% | +1.9% | -11.4% | -0.9% | -0.8% | +4.8% | -2.0% | +14.8% | +0.9% |
| 2016 | -6.4% | -0.5% | +5.0% | -5.7% | +0.4% | +5.6% | +6.5% | -2.8% | -5.9% | -3.0% | +1.8% | +6.7% |
| 2015 | +0.9% | +6.4% | +3.1% | -5.3% | -0.3% | -5.3% | +7.6% | -3.4% | +3.2% | +9.4% | +2.3% | +0.0% |
| 2014 | -5.6% | +4.2% | -4.4% | +3.6% | +0.6% | -0.7% | +2.4% | +3.0% | +3.5% | +6.4% | +6.8% | -0.3% |
| 2013 | +3.7% | -0.8% | +4.8% | +2.2% | +1.4% | +0.9% | +6.2% | -4.5% | +3.0% | +2.5% | +6.6% | -5.1% |
| 2012 | -1.3% | +4.9% | +5.5% | -2.9% | -1.7% | +10.0% | +1.2% | +2.1% | +2.3% | -1.7% | +5.9% | +1.7% |
| 2011 | -0.5% | +4.4% | -2.0% | +10.3% | +2.3% | -1.5% | -3.7% | +0.7% | +4.6% | +1.4% | +2.8% | -2.3% |
| 2010 | -2.9% | +6.5% | -2.1% | -1.0% | -1.1% | -5.9% | +3.4% | -0.0% | +14.1% | -2.4% | +7.7% | +6.8% |
| 2009 | -14.2% | -5.6% | +9.4% | +4.9% | +0.2% | -5.7% | +8.1% | +3.4% | +10.6% | +1.1% | +5.4% | -1.2% |
| 2008 | -2.6% | -8.6% | +4.9% | +9.7% | +0.3% | -1.6% | -10.6% | +7.3% | -3.2% | -12.2% | -9.5% | +2.0% |
| 2007 | +6.2% | -0.2% | -3.7% | -0.3% | +5.4% | +3.6% | +2.4% | +3.3% | -0.6% | +9.6% | +0.4% | +3.5% |
| 2006 | +0.9% | +2.8% | +5.8% | +0.5% | -2.5% | +7.9% | -7.4% | -11.3% | +6.2% | +7.5% | -1.8% | +1.1% |
| 2005 | -2.4% | -1.2% | -5.2% | -8.0% | +12.0% | -1.4% | +2.8% | -5.3% | -0.7% | +12.2% | +3.5% | -1.0% |
| 2004 | -0.7% | +5.2% | -3.2% | -0.3% | +1.3% | +8.6% | -0.9% | +1.1% | +0.8% | +15.5% | +1.6% | -0.4% |
| 2003 | +2.9% | +5.7% | -1.6% | +15.2% | +7.7% | -1.7% | +1.1% | -12.8% | -3.4% | +13.8% | +1.1% | +3.8% |
| 2002 | +3.7% | -10.3% | -3.5% | +1.0% | -2.3% | -1.6% | -9.7% | -4.2% | -3.1% | +4.8% | -4.8% | -13.1% |
| 2001 | +15.8% | -9.7% | -6.0% | -11.0% | +11.4% | +5.6% | +4.8% | -13.1% | -5.0% | +6.4% | +8.1% | +8.6% |
| 2000 | +7.3% | +1.4% | +5.9% | +2.8% | -40.9% | +3.3% | -1.4% | +5.8% | +1.4% | +4.9% | -10.9% | +22.4% |
| 1999 | +14.8% | -3.1% | +14.0% | -11.6% | -10.5% | +10.4% | -6.6% | +0.0% | -3.7% | +11.6% | +14.2% | -0.5% |
| 1998 | -2.8% | +12.7% | +9.2% | +4.7% | +3.6% | +8.9% | -10.0% | -17.1% | +0.7% | +19.8% | +10.5% | +15.0% |
| 1997 | +6.0% | -3.8% | +7.8% | +4.6% | +16.9% | -2.6% | +15.2% | -4.8% | +4.3% | +2.3% | +15.2% | +0.6% |
| 1996 | +2.5% | +10.5% | +8.7% | +1.2% | +5.3% | +8.1% | -5.2% | -2.9% | +3.0% | -2.9% | +16.9% | +8.0% |
| 1995 | +6.9% | -1.0% | +8.5% | -1.0% | -3.5% | +15.3% | +10.3% | -5.9% | +1.5% | -0.7% | -2.4% | -8.1% |
| 1994 | -7.8% | +12.6% | -9.5% | -16.5% | -12.2% | +12.6% | +0.4% | +4.6% | +2.4% | -2.0% | -2.4% | -16.3% |
| 1993 | -5.1% | -14.0% | -1.3% | -9.5% | -2.1% | -5.8% | -7.5% | +20.4% | -2.0% | -1.3% | +7.6% | +0.8% |
| 1992 | +2.2% | +0.5% | -1.1% | -7.3% | -0.7% | -18.0% | +2.6% | -17.9% | +9.4% | +12.4% | -10.1% | -7.6% |
| 1991 | +17.5% | +4.9% | +22.5% | +2.6% | +18.9% | -7.8% | +7.9% | +9.6% | -1.5% | -7.3% | +9.0% | +15.6% |
| 1990 | -12.5% | +1.1% | +19.6% | -2.8% | +12.4% | +4.2% | +1.6% | -18.0% | -7.8% | +10.8% | +31.0% | +1.6% |
| 1989 | +10.3% | +9.4% | +2.3% | +13.7% | +9.7% | -9.5% | +11.3% | +13.3% | +8.4% | -4.9% | +9.6% | +12.1% |
| 1988 | +14.7% | +26.4% | +16.5% | -6.2% | +0.0% | +9.9% | +0.6% | +2.4% | +0.0% | -8.1% | +11.4% | +4.5% |
| 1987 | +8.4% | -6.0% | +0.6% | -17.6% | -6.9% | +21.3% | -6.8% | +1.4% | +0.0% | -37.0% | +11.8% | -2.8% |
| 1986 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | -5.4% | -26.4% | +19.4% | +10.6% | +14.0% |
| Avg | +2.3% | +1.7% | +3.1% | -0.2% | +0.7% | +2.1% | +1.5% | -0.5% | +0.3% | +2.5% | +5.6% | +1.2% |
| Median | +2.7% | +1.8% | +2.4% | +1.1% | +0.7% | +3.3% | +2.4% | +0.3% | +0.7% | +1.8% | +6.7% | +0.7% |
| Last 5Y Avg | +4.5% | +3.9% | +0.2% | -0.1% | +0.1% | +2.6% | +3.6% | +1.9% | -2.1% | +2.2% | +7.3% | -1.5% |
| Std Dev (σ) | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 8.5% |
| Consistency (μ/σ) | 0.30 | 0.23 | 0.41 | -0.02 | 0.08 | 0.27 | 0.23 | -0.06 | 0.04 | 0.25 | 0.70 | 0.14 |
| Win Rate (%) | 63% | 57% | 57% | 55% | 60% | 56% | 64% | 50% | 53% | 57% | 83% | 55% |
| Winning / Losing Months | ▲25▼15 | ▲23▼17 | ▲23▼17 | ▲22▼18 | ▲24▼16 | ▲22▼17 | ▲25▼14 | ▲20▼20 | ▲21▼19 | ▲23▼17 | ▲33▼7 | ▲22▼18 |
| Longest Win / Loss Streak | ▲5▼5 | ▲5▼3 | ▲6▼5 | ▲5▼4 | ▲3▼4 | ▲4▼4 | ▲6▼3 | ▲4▼5 | ▲7▼3 | ▲11▼4 | ▲17▼2 | ▲4▼3 |
| Best | +17.5%in January 1991 | +26.4%in February 1988 | +22.5%in March 1991 | +15.2%in April 2003 | +18.9%in May 1991 | +21.3%in June 1987 | +15.2%in July 1997 | +20.4%in August 1993 | +14.1%in September 2010 | +19.8%in October 1998 | +31.0%in November 1990 | +22.4%in December 2000 |
| Worst | -14.2%in January 2009 | -14.0%in February 1993 | -9.8%in March 2025 | -17.6%in April 1987 | -40.9%in May 2000 | -18.0%in June 1992 | -10.6%in July 2008 | -18.0%in August 1990 | -26.4%in September 1986 | -37.0%in October 1987 | -10.9%in November 2000 | -16.3%in December 1994 |
−40.9%+31.0%
2026
Jan+9.2%
Feb+7.5%
Mar-1.4%
Apr+1.7%
May-5.6%
Jun+2.7%
Jul—
Aug—
Sep—
Oct—
Nov—
Dec—
2025
Jan+6.9%
Feb+7.1%
Mar-9.8%
Apr+5.2%
May+4.7%
Jun-4.8%
Jul-5.1%
Aug+0.5%
Sep-1.9%
Oct-1.4%
Nov+0.2%
Dec-5.6%
2024
Jan+5.3%
Feb+7.2%
Mar-1.5%
Apr-1.2%
May+12.0%
Jun+5.0%
Jul-3.2%
Aug+8.6%
Sep-0.7%
Oct-1.4%
Nov+11.3%
Dec-5.7%
2023
Jan+12.0%
Feb-5.1%
Mar+2.6%
Apr+1.3%
May+1.9%
Jun+5.2%
Jul+4.1%
Aug-1.8%
Sep+2.9%
Oct-2.2%
Nov+7.5%
Dec+13.9%
2022
Jan-11.0%
Feb+3.0%
Mar+10.9%
Apr-7.5%
May-12.3%
Jun+2.8%
Jul+13.1%
Aug-3.5%
Sep-9.5%
Oct+6.4%
Nov+7.5%
Dec-15.3%
2021
Jan-6.5%
Feb-5.9%
Mar+6.5%
Apr+5.8%
May+1.7%
Jun+4.6%
Jul+8.8%
Aug+6.0%
Sep-1.3%
Oct+9.6%
Nov+9.7%
Dec+5.2%
2020
Jan+3.9%
Feb-7.8%
Mar+1.4%
Apr+6.5%
May+1.8%
Jun-1.7%
Jul+7.6%
Aug+6.8%
Sep+2.1%
Oct+0.9%
Nov+9.5%
Dec-1.3%
2019
Jan+5.4%
Feb+2.2%
Mar+10.7%
Apr+1.4%
May-2.2%
Jun+10.3%
Jul+4.3%
Aug+7.2%
Sep-2.3%
Oct+3.3%
Nov+0.9%
Dec-2.0%
2018
Jan+4.7%
Feb-1.8%
Mar-1.3%
Apr+4.6%
May+0.8%
Jun+5.4%
Jul+4.7%
Aug+6.9%
Sep+0.8%
Oct-2.7%
Nov+1.4%
Dec-11.9%
2017
Jan+2.4%
Feb+8.4%
Mar-5.4%
Apr+5.9%
May+1.9%
Jun-11.4%
Jul-0.9%
Aug-0.8%
Sep+4.8%
Oct-2.0%
Nov+14.8%
Dec+0.9%
2016
Jan-6.4%
Feb-0.5%
Mar+5.0%
Apr-5.7%
May+0.4%
Jun+5.6%
Jul+6.5%
Aug-2.8%
Sep-5.9%
Oct-3.0%
Nov+1.8%
Dec+6.7%
2015
Jan+0.9%
Feb+6.4%
Mar+3.1%
Apr-5.3%
May-0.3%
Jun-5.3%
Jul+7.6%
Aug-3.4%
Sep+3.2%
Oct+9.4%
Nov+2.3%
Dec+0.0%
2014
Jan-5.6%
Feb+4.2%
Mar-4.4%
Apr+3.6%
May+0.6%
Jun-0.7%
Jul+2.4%
Aug+3.0%
Sep+3.5%
Oct+6.4%
Nov+6.8%
Dec-0.3%
2013
Jan+3.7%
Feb-0.8%
Mar+4.8%
Apr+2.2%
May+1.4%
Jun+0.9%
Jul+6.2%
Aug-4.5%
Sep+3.0%
Oct+2.5%
Nov+6.6%
Dec-5.1%
2012
Jan-1.3%
Feb+4.9%
Mar+5.5%
Apr-2.9%
May-1.7%
Jun+10.0%
Jul+1.2%
Aug+2.1%
Sep+2.3%
Oct-1.7%
Nov+5.9%
Dec+1.7%
2011
Jan-0.5%
Feb+4.4%
Mar-2.0%
Apr+10.3%
May+2.3%
Jun-1.5%
Jul-3.7%
Aug+0.7%
Sep+4.6%
Oct+1.4%
Nov+2.8%
Dec-2.3%
2010
Jan-2.9%
Feb+6.5%
Mar-2.1%
Apr-1.0%
May-1.1%
Jun-5.9%
Jul+3.4%
Aug-0.0%
Sep+14.1%
Oct-2.4%
Nov+7.7%
Dec+6.8%
2009
Jan-14.2%
Feb-5.6%
Mar+9.4%
Apr+4.9%
May+0.2%
Jun-5.7%
Jul+8.1%
Aug+3.4%
Sep+10.6%
Oct+1.1%
Nov+5.4%
Dec-1.2%
2008
Jan-2.6%
Feb-8.6%
Mar+4.9%
Apr+9.7%
May+0.3%
Jun-1.6%
Jul-10.6%
Aug+7.3%
Sep-3.2%
Oct-12.2%
Nov-9.5%
Dec+2.0%
2007
Jan+6.2%
Feb-0.2%
Mar-3.7%
Apr-0.3%
May+5.4%
Jun+3.6%
Jul+2.4%
Aug+3.3%
Sep-0.6%
Oct+9.6%
Nov+0.4%
Dec+3.5%
2006
Jan+0.9%
Feb+2.8%
Mar+5.8%
Apr+0.5%
May-2.5%
Jun+7.9%
Jul-7.4%
Aug-11.3%
Sep+6.2%
Oct+7.5%
Nov-1.8%
Dec+1.1%
2005
Jan-2.4%
Feb-1.2%
Mar-5.2%
Apr-8.0%
May+12.0%
Jun-1.4%
Jul+2.8%
Aug-5.3%
Sep-0.7%
Oct+12.2%
Nov+3.5%
Dec-1.0%
2004
Jan-0.7%
Feb+5.2%
Mar-3.2%
Apr-0.3%
May+1.3%
Jun+8.6%
Jul-0.9%
Aug+1.1%
Sep+0.8%
Oct+15.5%
Nov+1.6%
Dec-0.4%
2003
Jan+2.9%
Feb+5.7%
Mar-1.6%
Apr+15.2%
May+7.7%
Jun-1.7%
Jul+1.1%
Aug-12.8%
Sep-3.4%
Oct+13.8%
Nov+1.1%
Dec+3.8%
2002
Jan+3.7%
Feb-10.3%
Mar-3.5%
Apr+1.0%
May-2.3%
Jun-1.6%
Jul-9.7%
Aug-4.2%
Sep-3.1%
Oct+4.8%
Nov-4.8%
Dec-13.1%
2001
Jan+15.8%
Feb-9.7%
Mar-6.0%
Apr-11.0%
May+11.4%
Jun+5.6%
Jul+4.8%
Aug-13.1%
Sep-5.0%
Oct+6.4%
Nov+8.1%
Dec+8.6%
2000
Jan+7.3%
Feb+1.4%
Mar+5.9%
Apr+2.8%
May-40.9%
Jun+3.3%
Jul-1.4%
Aug+5.8%
Sep+1.4%
Oct+4.9%
Nov-10.9%
Dec+22.4%
1999
Jan+14.8%
Feb-3.1%
Mar+14.0%
Apr-11.6%
May-10.5%
Jun+10.4%
Jul-6.6%
Aug+0.0%
Sep-3.7%
Oct+11.6%
Nov+14.2%
Dec-0.5%
1998
Jan-2.8%
Feb+12.7%
Mar+9.2%
Apr+4.7%
May+3.6%
Jun+8.9%
Jul-10.0%
Aug-17.1%
Sep+0.7%
Oct+19.8%
Nov+10.5%
Dec+15.0%
1997
Jan+6.0%
Feb-3.8%
Mar+7.8%
Apr+4.6%
May+16.9%
Jun-2.6%
Jul+15.2%
Aug-4.8%
Sep+4.3%
Oct+2.3%
Nov+15.2%
Dec+0.6%
1996
Jan+2.5%
Feb+10.5%
Mar+8.7%
Apr+1.2%
May+5.3%
Jun+8.1%
Jul-5.2%
Aug-2.9%
Sep+3.0%
Oct-2.9%
Nov+16.9%
Dec+8.0%
1995
Jan+6.9%
Feb-1.0%
Mar+8.5%
Apr-1.0%
May-3.5%
Jun+15.3%
Jul+10.3%
Aug-5.9%
Sep+1.5%
Oct-0.7%
Nov-2.4%
Dec-8.1%
1994
Jan-7.8%
Feb+12.6%
Mar-9.5%
Apr-16.5%
May-12.2%
Jun+12.6%
Jul+0.4%
Aug+4.6%
Sep+2.4%
Oct-2.0%
Nov-2.4%
Dec-16.3%
1993
Jan-5.1%
Feb-14.0%
Mar-1.3%
Apr-9.5%
May-2.1%
Jun-5.8%
Jul-7.5%
Aug+20.4%
Sep-2.0%
Oct-1.3%
Nov+7.6%
Dec+0.8%
1992
Jan+2.2%
Feb+0.5%
Mar-1.1%
Apr-7.3%
May-0.7%
Jun-18.0%
Jul+2.6%
Aug-17.9%
Sep+9.4%
Oct+12.4%
Nov-10.1%
Dec-7.6%
1991
Jan+17.5%
Feb+4.9%
Mar+22.5%
Apr+2.6%
May+18.9%
Jun-7.8%
Jul+7.9%
Aug+9.6%
Sep-1.5%
Oct-7.3%
Nov+9.0%
Dec+15.6%
1990
Jan-12.5%
Feb+1.1%
Mar+19.6%
Apr-2.8%
May+12.4%
Jun+4.2%
Jul+1.6%
Aug-18.0%
Sep-7.8%
Oct+10.8%
Nov+31.0%
Dec+1.6%
1989
Jan+10.3%
Feb+9.4%
Mar+2.3%
Apr+13.7%
May+9.7%
Jun-9.5%
Jul+11.3%
Aug+13.3%
Sep+8.4%
Oct-4.9%
Nov+9.6%
Dec+12.1%
1988
Jan+14.7%
Feb+26.4%
Mar+16.5%
Apr-6.2%
May+0.0%
Jun+9.9%
Jul+0.6%
Aug+2.4%
Sep+0.0%
Oct-8.1%
Nov+11.4%
Dec+4.5%
1987
Jan+8.4%
Feb-6.0%
Mar+0.6%
Apr-17.6%
May-6.9%
Jun+21.3%
Jul-6.8%
Aug+1.4%
Sep+0.0%
Oct-37.0%
Nov+11.8%
Dec-2.8%
1986
Jan—
Feb—
Mar—
Apr—
May—
Jun—
Jul—
Aug-5.4%
Sep-26.4%
Oct+19.4%
Nov+10.6%
Dec+14.0%
Avg
Jan+2.3%
Feb+1.7%
Mar+3.1%
Apr-0.2%
May+0.7%
Jun+2.1%
Jul+1.5%
Aug-0.5%
Sep+0.3%
Oct+2.5%
Nov+5.6%
Dec+1.2%
Median
Jan+2.7%
Feb+1.8%
Mar+2.4%
Apr+1.1%
May+0.7%
Jun+3.3%
Jul+2.4%
Aug+0.3%
Sep+0.7%
Oct+1.8%
Nov+6.7%
Dec+0.7%
Last 5Y Avg
Jan+4.5%
Feb+3.9%
Mar+0.2%
Apr-0.1%
May+0.1%
Jun+2.6%
Jul+3.6%
Aug+1.9%
Sep-2.1%
Oct+2.2%
Nov+7.3%
Dec-1.5%
Std Dev (σ)
Jan7.6%
Feb7.6%
Mar7.5%
Apr7.3%
May9.7%
Jun7.9%
Jul6.6%
Aug8.3%
Sep6.4%
Oct9.8%
Nov8.0%
Dec8.5%
Consistency (μ/σ)
Jan0.30
Feb0.23
Mar0.41
Apr-0.02
May0.08
Jun0.27
Jul0.23
Aug-0.06
Sep0.04
Oct0.25
Nov0.70
Dec0.14
Win Rate (%)
Jan63%
Feb57%
Mar57%
Apr55%
May60%
Jun56%
Jul64%
Aug50%
Sep53%
Oct57%
Nov83%
Dec55%
Winning / Losing Months
Jan▲25▼15
Feb▲23▼17
Mar▲23▼17
Apr▲22▼18
May▲24▼16
Jun▲22▼17
Jul▲25▼14
Aug▲20▼20
Sep▲21▼19
Oct▲23▼17
Nov▲33▼7
Dec▲22▼18
Longest Win / Loss Streak
Jan▲5▼5
Feb▲5▼3
Mar▲6▼5
Apr▲5▼4
May▲3▼4
Jun▲4▼4
Jul▲6▼3
Aug▲4▼5
Sep▲7▼3
Oct▲11▼4
Nov▲17▼2
Dec▲4▼3
Best
Jan+17.5%1991
Feb+26.4%1988
Mar+22.5%1991
Apr+15.2%2003
May+18.9%1991
Jun+21.3%1987
Jul+15.2%1997
Aug+20.4%1993
Sep+14.1%2010
Oct+19.8%1998
Nov+31.0%1990
Dec+22.4%2000
Worst
Jan-14.2%2009
Feb-14.0%1993
Mar-9.8%2025
Apr-17.6%1987
May-40.9%2000
Jun-18.0%1992
Jul-10.6%2008
Aug-18.0%1990
Sep-26.4%1986
Oct-37.0%1987
Nov-10.9%2000
Dec-16.3%1994
−40.9%+31.0%
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