Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what COST is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$797.95
Method range
$91.58 – $1,091.27
median $778.32
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $797.95 | -17.90% |
| Exit multiple | $758.68 | -21.94% |
| Analyst target | $1,091.27 | +12.29% |
| Graham number | $91.58 | -90.58% |
- Forward DCF$797.95
- Exit multiple$758.68
- Analyst target$1,091.27
- Graham number$91.58
Stock price
$971.87
FCF / share (TTM)
$4.59
3Y FCF CAGR
9.9%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$124.44
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
38.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -681.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
9.9%
Your model implies
38.2%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 10% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | 33.9% | 32.8% | 31.6% | 30.2% | 28.7% |
| 8.1% | 37.1% | 36.1% | 35.1% | 33.9% | 32.7% |
| 9.1% | 40.0% | 39.1% | 38.2% | 37.3% | 36.2% |
| 10.1% | 42.7% | 41.9% | 41.1% | 40.3% | 39.4% |
| 11.1% | 45.2% | 44.5% | 43.8% | 43.1% | 42.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
6.44
Demanding vs growth
Net cash
$6.0B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.91
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Costco (COST) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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