Campbell Soup (CPB) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.49), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, CPB sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jul 2, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.39.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.49+0.11 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.49 | +0.11 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.85% | -0.21pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.85% | +0.26pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 13 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.39 |
| Per-event yield | 1.74% |
| Annualized yield | 7.38% |
| Previously paid | Apr 2, 2026 ($0.39) |
| Last record date | Apr 2, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 4, 2026 |
CPB Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Campbell Soup (CPB). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.39 | -1.63% | $22.38 | >30 | no | no | -11.71% | -6.97% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | -1.98% | $26.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.44% | +3.92% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -1.63% | $31.99 | 2 | yes | yes | -7.19% | -5.35% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -0.97% | $31.94 | 13 | no | yes | -7.98% | -0.97% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | 0.08% | $39.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.56% | -3.10% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | -0.17% | $41.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.20% | -8.95% | |
| Q4 | $0.37 | -0.90% | $47.86 | 5 | yes | yes | -2.59% | +0.73% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | -0.72% | $45.53 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.69% | +0.37% | |
| Q2 | $0.37 | -1.28% | $44.42 | 5 | yes | yes | -4.93% | -0.83% | |
| Q1 | $0.37 | -0.07% | $44.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.91% | -1.45% | |
| Q4 | $0.37 | -0.70% | $39.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.84% | -0.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | -1.18% | $46.51 | 12 | no | yes | -3.72% | -0.47% | |
| Q2 | $0.37 | -0.16% | $54.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.62% | +1.29% | |
| Q1 | $0.37 | -0.93% | $56.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.64% | -0.36% | |
| Q4 | $0.37 | -1.56% | $48.06 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.43% | +2.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | -0.62% | $48.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.85% | +3.27% | |
| Q2 | $0.37 | -0.60% | $44.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.18% | +2.90% | |
| Q1 | $0.37 | -0.27% | $44.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.36% | +3.31% | |
| Q4 | $0.37 | -0.70% | $42.56 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.26% | -1.60% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | -0.99% | $45.55 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.80% | +0.22% |
- -6.97%
- +3.92%
- -5.35%
- -0.97%
- -3.10%
- -8.95%
- +0.73%
- +0.37%
- -0.83%
- -1.45%
- -0.18%
- -0.47%
- +1.29%
- -0.36%
- +2.91%
- +3.27%
- +2.90%
- +3.31%
- -1.60%
- +0.22%
CPB Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 10 | 50% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
CPB Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with CPB's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $78.00
- After-tax dividend
- $50.70
- Slippage round-trip
- -$4.48
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$46.22
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +1.03%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~52.0%
CPB Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical CPB ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · CPB (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.81% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.67% | |
| -0.47% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.77% | |
| +0.93% | |
| +0.99% | |
| -0.97% | |
| +1.22% | |
| +1.49% | |
| -6.97% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.