Dover (DOV) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.17), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, DOV sits noticeably below the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 28, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-6pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.17in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -6pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.17 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.04% | +0.31pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.20% | +0.83pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 4 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $0.52 |
| Per-event yield | 0.23% |
| Annualized yield | 0.98% |
| Previously paid | Feb 27, 2026 ($0.52) |
| Last record date | Feb 27, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 13, 2026 |
DOV Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Dover (DOV). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.52 | -1.12% | $227.14 | >30 | no | no | -11.16% | -8.01% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -0.18% | $186.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.61% | +2.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -0.38% | $181.59 | >30 | no | no | -4.80% | -1.69% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | -0.70% | $179.68 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.34% | +0.16% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | 0.13% | $196.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.54% | -5.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -0.14% | $206.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.78% | -2.20% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | 0.06% | $183.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.30% | -1.97% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | -0.08% | $181.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.06% | -2.15% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | -0.47% | $164.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.47% | +4.47% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | 0.62% | $140.09 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.11% | +2.59% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -0.06% | $146.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.35% | -2.97% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | 0.14% | $137.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.06% | +1.82% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | 0.59% | $148.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.13% | +4.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -0.61% | $139.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.93% | +0.68% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -0.17% | $127.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.39% | +2.02% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | 0.71% | $133.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.79% | +0.47% | |
| Q1 | $0.50 | 0.02% | $155.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.22% | -2.52% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | 0.69% | $171.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.92% | -0.44% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | 0.11% | $174.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.00% | -0.76% | |
| Q2 | $0.49 | 0.60% | $148.89 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.25% | +3.19% |
- -8.01%
- +2.91%
- -1.69%
- +0.16%
- -5.27%
- -2.20%
- -1.97%
- -2.15%
- +4.47%
- +2.59%
- -2.97%
- +1.82%
- +4.33%
- +0.68%
- +2.02%
- +0.47%
- -2.52%
- -0.44%
- -0.76%
- +3.19%
DOV Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
DOV Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with DOV's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $104.00
- After-tax dividend
- $67.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$45.43
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$22.17
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.05%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~2.5%
DOV Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical DOV ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · DOV (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.33% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.29% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.29% | |
| -1.69% | |
| +0.28% | |
| -8.01% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.