Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what DOW is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
—
Method range
$6.95 – $64.35
median $35.92
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | — | — |
| Exit multiple | $64.35 | +105.93% |
| Analyst target | $35.92 | +14.94% |
| Graham number | $6.95 | -77.76% |
- Forward DCF—
- Exit multiple$64.35
- Analyst target$35.92
- Graham number$6.95
Stock price
$31.25
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.86
3Y FCF CAGR
-27.8%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$2.16
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
7.8%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -1,344.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-27.8%
Your model implies
7.8%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -28% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.1% | -0.9% | -3.5% |
| 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.3% |
| 6.8% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% |
| 7.8% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 10.6% | 9.7% | 8.7% |
| 8.8% | 14.5% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 11.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.21
Low vs growth
Net debt
$15.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.44
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Dow (DOW) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.