Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what DOW is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
—
Method range
$6.95 – $74.47
median $39.36
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | — | — |
| Exit multiple | $74.47 | +119.21% |
| Analyst target | $39.36 | +15.87% |
| Graham number | $6.95 | -79.54% |
- Forward DCF—
- Exit multiple$74.47
- Analyst target$39.36
- Graham number$6.95
Stock price
$33.97
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.86
3Y FCF CAGR
-21.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$3.27
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
8.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -939.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-21.7%
Your model implies
8.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -22% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.0% | -2.6% |
| 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| 6.6% | 10.0% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.4% |
| 7.6% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 8.9% |
| 8.6% | 15.0% | 14.3% | 13.6% | 12.8% | 11.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.26
Low vs growth
Net debt
$15.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.41
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Dow (DOW) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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