Equifax (EFX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.07), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, EFX sits noticeably below the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 21, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-6pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.07-0.11 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -6pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.07 | -0.11 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.36% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.19% | -0.16pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 4 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.56 |
| Per-event yield | 0.27% |
| Annualized yield | 1.29% |
| Previously paid | Mar 9, 2026 ($0.56) |
| Last record date | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 17, 2026 |
EFX Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Equifax (EFX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.56 | -1.42% | $207.83 | >30 | no | no | -14.89% | -10.63% | |
| Q4 | $0.50 | 0.20% | $213.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.82% | -2.13% | |
| Q3 | $0.50 | -1.86% | $246.30 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.10% | +2.52% | |
| Q2 | $0.50 | -1.16% | $263.41 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.46% | -0.57% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | -0.32% | $241.22 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.86% | +1.81% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -0.01% | $252.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.09% | +2.45% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -0.61% | $307.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.95% | -2.99% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | 0.37% | $242.11 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.09% | -4.27% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | 0.80% | $257.03 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.80% | +6.59% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | 0.73% | $209.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.44% | +4.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -0.67% | $206.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.27% | -4.32% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -0.67% | $210.06 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.76% | -0.53% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | -1.52% | $211.72 | >30 | no | no | -7.16% | -4.16% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | 0.03% | $196.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.56% | +0.60% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | 0.67% | $190.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.95% | +4.72% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -0.60% | $196.98 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.15% | +1.01% | |
| Q1 | $0.39 | 0.17% | $212.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.24% | +3.17% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -0.27% | $281.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.47% | -1.15% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -0.67% | $277.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.64% | -1.32% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | 0.57% | $237.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.23% | -1.54% |
- -10.63%
- -2.13%
- +2.52%
- -0.57%
- +1.81%
- +2.45%
- -2.99%
- -4.27%
- +6.59%
- +4.06%
- -4.32%
- -0.53%
- -4.16%
- +0.60%
- +4.72%
- +1.01%
- +3.17%
- -1.15%
- -1.32%
- -1.54%
EFX Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
EFX Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with EFX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $112.00
- After-tax dividend
- $72.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$41.57
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$31.23
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.08%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~3.8%
EFX Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical EFX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · EFX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.16% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.14% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.20% | |
| -4.16% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.13% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.19% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.23% | |
| -10.63% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.