Eastman Chemical (EMN) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 84% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.35), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, EMN sits noticeably below the Basic Materials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 14, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 84%-11pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.35+0.14 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 84% | -11pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.35 | +0.14 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.54% | -0.13pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 30% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.56% | -0.85pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 16 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
| Dividend | $0.84 |
| Per-event yield | 1.19% |
| Annualized yield | 4.45% |
| Previously paid | Mar 13, 2026 ($0.84) |
| Last record date | Mar 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 8, 2026 |
EMN Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Eastman Chemical (EMN). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.84 | 1.25% | $70.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.50% | -6.26% | |
| Q4 | $0.84 | -0.83% | $65.12 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.39% | -1.55% | |
| Q3 | $0.83 | -0.64% | $67.16 | 3 | yes | yes | -8.79% | -2.95% | |
| Q2 | $0.83 | -2.42% | $78.95 | 12 | no | yes | -7.57% | -3.94% | |
| Q1 | $0.83 | 0.96% | $90.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.45% | -1.13% | |
| Q4 | $0.83 | -1.42% | $98.50 | >30 | no | no | -9.77% | -6.56% | |
| Q3 | $0.81 | -0.25% | $103.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.25% | +5.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.81 | -0.92% | $99.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.65% | -0.75% | |
| Q1 | $0.81 | -2.23% | $93.02 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.89% | +3.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.81 | -0.87% | $89.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.44% | +0.96% | |
| Q3 | $0.79 | 0.46% | $77.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.76% | -0.65% | |
| Q2 | $0.79 | 0.40% | $82.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.37% | -3.92% | |
| Q1 | $0.79 | 2.11% | $79.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.48% | +3.38% | |
| Q4 | $0.79 | -1.87% | $88.10 | 16 | no | yes | -9.34% | -6.30% | |
| Q3 | $0.76 | -2.37% | $84.11 | >30 | no | no | -16.03% | -9.20% | |
| Q2 | $0.76 | -1.00% | $97.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.13% | -8.18% | |
| Q1 | $0.76 | 0.40% | $105.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.00% | +4.79% | |
| Q4 | $0.76 | -0.84% | $114.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.83% | +1.07% | |
| Q3 | $0.69 | -0.19% | $110.20 | >30 | no | no | -10.85% | -9.37% | |
| Q2 | $0.69 | -0.51% | $125.33 | >30 | no | no | -9.09% | -4.47% |
- -6.26%
- -1.55%
- -2.95%
- -3.94%
- -1.13%
- -6.56%
- +5.55%
- -0.75%
- +3.50%
- +0.96%
- -0.65%
- -3.92%
- +3.38%
- -6.30%
- -9.20%
- -8.18%
- +4.79%
- +1.07%
- -9.37%
- -4.47%
EMN Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 4 | 20% |
EMN Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with EMN's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $168.00
- After-tax dividend
- $109.20
- Slippage round-trip
- -$14.12
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$95.08
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.67%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~33.9%
EMN Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical EMN ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · EMN (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -4.47% | |
| -9.37% | |
| +0.66% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.78% | |
| -9.20% | |
| -6.30% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +1.01% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.87% | |
| +0.81% | |
| +0.79% | |
| -6.56% | |
| +0.92% | |
| -3.94% | |
| +1.24% | |
| +1.29% | |
| +1.19% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.