Emerson Electric (EMR) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.20), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, EMR sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Aug 14, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.20in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.20 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.64% | -0.28pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.94% | +1.09pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 12 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $0.56 |
| Per-event yield | 0.38% |
| Annualized yield | 1.65% |
| Previously paid | Feb 13, 2026 ($0.56) |
| Last record date | Feb 13, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 10, 2026 |
EMR Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Emerson Electric (EMR). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.56 | 0.50% | $144.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.81% | +0.75% | |
| Q4 | $0.56 | -1.32% | $128.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.95% | +0.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.53 | -0.33% | $134.37 | 6 | no | yes | -3.33% | -0.05% | |
| Q2 | $0.53 | -0.04% | $120.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.51% | -1.23% | |
| Q1 | $0.53 | -0.02% | $125.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.64% | -3.27% | |
| Q4 | $0.53 | -0.42% | $129.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.91% | +1.24% | |
| Q3 | $0.53 | -0.62% | $104.29 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.97% | +0.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.53 | -0.71% | $114.82 | 6 | no | yes | -4.11% | -1.57% | |
| Q1 | $0.53 | -0.16% | $106.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +0.18% | |
| Q4 | $0.53 | -0.71% | $88.37 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.36% | +0.75% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | -0.60% | $96.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.98% | +0.22% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | -1.71% | $82.48 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.44% | +0.41% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | -1.78% | $86.92 | 12 | no | yes | -7.04% | -4.86% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -1.26% | $91.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.39% | +4.92% | |
| Q3 | $0.52 | 0.49% | $87.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.85% | +3.73% | |
| Q2 | $0.52 | -0.85% | $83.13 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.55% | +0.82% | |
| Q1 | $0.52 | -1.45% | $98.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.64% | -4.79% | |
| Q4 | $0.52 | -0.58% | $97.50 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.29% | -2.74% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -0.56% | $104.28 | 10 | no | yes | -4.32% | -2.44% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | -0.46% | $93.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.71% | +0.64% |
- +0.75%
- +0.25%
- -0.05%
- -1.23%
- -3.27%
- +1.24%
- +0.84%
- -1.57%
- +0.18%
- +0.75%
- +0.22%
- +0.41%
- -4.86%
- +4.92%
- +3.73%
- +0.82%
- -4.79%
- -2.74%
- -2.44%
- +0.64%
EMR Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
EMR Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with EMR's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $112.00
- After-tax dividend
- $72.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$29.00
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$43.80
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.15%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~7.6%
EMR Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical EMR ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · EMR (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.54% | |
| -2.44% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.57% | |
| -4.86% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.49% | |
| -1.57% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.44% | |
| -0.05% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.38% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.