Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ESS is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$175.82
Method range
$55.91 – $286.67
median $179.31
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $175.82 | -38.40% |
| Exit multiple | $182.80 | -35.96% |
| Analyst target | $286.67 | +0.43% |
| Graham number | $55.91 | -80.41% |
- Forward DCF$175.82
- Exit multiple$182.80
- Analyst target$286.67
- Graham number$55.91
Stock price
$285.43
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.79
3Y FCF CAGR
8.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$108.35
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
21.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -163.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
8.5%
Your model implies
21.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 8% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | 17.1% | 16.0% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 11.4% |
| 7.2% | 20.1% | 19.2% | 18.1% | 16.9% | 15.6% |
| 8.2% | 22.8% | 22.0% | 21.1% | 20.2% | 19.1% |
| 9.2% | 25.3% | 24.6% | 23.9% | 23.0% | 22.2% |
| 10.2% | 27.6% | 27.0% | 26.4% | 25.7% | 24.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
1.15
Fair vs growth
Net debt
$6.8B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.73
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Essex Property Trust (ESS) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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