Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ETSY is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$9.07
Method range
$9.07 – $104.58
median $70.24
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $9.07 | -86.43% |
| Exit multiple | $104.58 | +56.42% |
| Analyst target | $70.24 | +5.06% |
| Graham number | — | — |
- Forward DCF$9.07
- Exit multiple$104.58
- Analyst target$70.24
- Graham number—
Stock price
$66.86
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.74
3Y FCF CAGR
5.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$7.73
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
37.7%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -765.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
5.1%
Your model implies
37.7%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 5% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12.0% | 34.4% | 33.9% | 33.4% | 32.8% | 32.1% |
| 13.0% | 36.5% | 36.1% | 35.6% | 35.0% | 34.5% |
| 14.0% | 38.6% | 38.1% | 37.7% | 37.2% | 36.7% |
| 15.0% | 40.5% | 40.0% | 39.6% | 39.2% | 38.7% |
| 15.0% | 40.5% | 40.0% | 39.6% | 39.2% | 38.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net cash
$653M
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.90
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Etsy (ETSY) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation