Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ETSY is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$9.17
Method range
$9.17 – $103.20
median $74.21
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $9.17 | -88.61% |
| Exit multiple | $103.20 | +28.23% |
| Analyst target | $74.21 | -7.79% |
| Graham number | — | — |
- Forward DCF$9.17
- Exit multiple$103.20
- Analyst target$74.21
- Graham number—
Stock price
$80.48
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.74
3Y FCF CAGR
5.1%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$7.86
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
40.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -924.0% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
5.1%
Your model implies
40.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 5% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11.9% | 36.8% | 36.3% | 35.7% | 35.1% | 34.4% |
| 12.9% | 39.0% | 38.5% | 38.0% | 37.4% | 36.8% |
| 13.9% | 41.1% | 40.6% | 40.1% | 39.6% | 39.1% |
| 14.9% | 43.1% | 42.7% | 42.2% | 41.8% | 41.3% |
| 15.0% | 43.4% | 43.0% | 42.5% | 42.1% | 41.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$1.68B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.84
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Etsy (ETSY) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.