Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what FAST is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$30.87
Method range
$4.81 – $47.00
median $35.96
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $30.87 | -34.03% |
| Exit multiple | $41.05 | -12.27% |
| Analyst target | $47.00 | +0.45% |
| Graham number | $4.81 | -89.72% |
- Forward DCF$30.87
- Exit multiple$41.05
- Analyst target$47.00
- Graham number$4.81
Stock price
$46.79
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.28
3Y FCF CAGR
14.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$12.67
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
32.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -269.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
14.5%
Your model implies
32.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 14% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | 27.7% | 26.4% | 24.9% | 23.3% | 21.3% |
| 7.2% | 31.0% | 30.0% | 28.8% | 27.5% | 26.0% |
| 8.2% | 34.0% | 33.1% | 32.1% | 31.1% | 29.9% |
| 9.2% | 36.8% | 36.0% | 35.2% | 34.3% | 33.3% |
| 10.2% | 39.4% | 38.7% | 38.0% | 37.2% | 36.3% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
2.55
Demanding vs growth
Net debt
$165M
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.73
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Fastenal (FAST) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation