FDX dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
FedEx (FDX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.29), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, FDX sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.29
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.29 | +0.12 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.26% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.47% | -0.45pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 9 | — |
The company has not declared a dividend, and we don't have enough recent history to extrapolate a reliable estimate.
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for FedEx (FDX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.22 | 0.03% | $326.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.18% | +0.13% | |
| Q1 | $1.45 | -2.09% | $289.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.16% | -1.38% | |
| Q4 | $1.45 | -0.72% | $228.97 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.76% | +3.60% | |
| Q3 | $1.45 | -0.32% | $183.37 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.48% | -0.10% | |
| Q2 | $1.45 | -0.99% | $182.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.37% | +1.36% | |
| Q1 | $1.38 | -1.18% | $204.47 | >30 | no | no | -14.45% | -2.72% | |
| Q4 | $1.38 | 0.08% | $226.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.49% | +1.59% | |
| Q3 | $1.38 | 0.16% | $227.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.44% | +3.99% | |
| Q2 | $1.38 | 0.13% | $204.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.42% | +18.42% | |
| Q1 | $1.26 | -0.07% | $201.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.10% | +1.84% | |
| Q4 | $1.26 | -0.08% | $215.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.59% | +5.69% | |
| Q3 | $1.26 | -0.65% | $206.27 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.95% | -0.20% | |
| Q2 | $1.26 | -0.25% | $181.19 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.69% | +4.45% | |
| Q1 | $1.15 | -0.31% | $167.36 | 6 | no | yes | -8.18% | +6.69% | |
| Q4 | $1.15 | -1.03% | $138.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.41% | +0.72% | |
| Q3 | $1.15 | -0.65% | $169.76 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.60% | -0.15% | |
| Q2 | $1.15 | 3.90% | $183.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.57% | -1.36% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -1.49% | $178.21 | 9 | no | yes | -10.07% | -3.25% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | 0.22% | $197.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.79% | +2.45% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | 0.14% | $214.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.22% | -2.80% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with FDX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical FDX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.55%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+11.09%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+64.94%
Best event
+6.69%
Worst event
-3.25%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · FDX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.35% | |
| +0.38% | |
| -3.25% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +6.69% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.61% | |
| -2.72% | |
| +0.80% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.37% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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