FedEx (FDX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.23), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, FDX sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 22, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.22.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.23+0.05 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.23 | +0.05 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.44% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.47% | -0.44pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 9 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $1.22 |
| Per-event yield | 0.34% |
| Annualized yield | 1.45% |
| Previously paid | Mar 9, 2026 ($1.45) |
| Last record date | Mar 9, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 1, 2026 |
FDX Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for FedEx (FDX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.45 | -2.09% | $359.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.16% | -1.48% | |
| Q4 | $1.45 | -0.72% | $284.34 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.76% | +3.48% | |
| Q3 | $1.45 | -0.32% | $227.72 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.49% | -0.25% | |
| Q2 | $1.45 | -0.99% | $226.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.37% | +1.20% | |
| Q1 | $1.38 | -1.18% | $253.92 | >30 | no | no | -14.45% | -2.85% | |
| Q4 | $1.38 | 0.07% | $280.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.48% | +1.47% | |
| Q3 | $1.38 | 0.16% | $283.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.44% | +3.88% | |
| Q2 | $1.38 | 0.13% | $253.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.42% | +18.29% | |
| Q1 | $1.26 | -0.07% | $250.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.10% | +1.72% | |
| Q4 | $1.26 | -0.08% | $267.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.59% | +5.57% | |
| Q3 | $1.26 | -0.65% | $256.16 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.95% | -0.32% | |
| Q2 | $1.26 | -0.25% | $225.01 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.69% | +4.32% | |
| Q1 | $1.15 | -0.31% | $207.83 | 6 | no | yes | -8.18% | +6.56% | |
| Q4 | $1.15 | -1.02% | $171.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.41% | +0.56% | |
| Q3 | $1.15 | -0.65% | $210.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.60% | -0.28% | |
| Q2 | $1.15 | 3.90% | $228.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.57% | -1.48% | |
| Q1 | $0.75 | -1.50% | $221.31 | 9 | no | yes | -10.07% | -3.33% | |
| Q4 | $0.75 | 0.22% | $245.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.78% | +2.37% | |
| Q3 | $0.75 | 0.14% | $265.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.22% | -2.87% | |
| Q2 | $0.75 | -3.61% | $303.69 | >30 | no | no | -5.87% | -1.17% |
- -1.48%
- +3.48%
- -0.25%
- +1.20%
- -2.85%
- +1.47%
- +3.88%
- +18.29%
- +1.72%
- +5.57%
- -0.32%
- +4.32%
- +6.56%
- +0.56%
- -0.28%
- -1.48%
- -3.33%
- +2.37%
- -2.87%
- -1.17%
FDX Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
FDX Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with FDX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $244.00
- After-tax dividend
- $158.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$71.82
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$86.78
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.12%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~6.1%
FDX Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical FDX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · FDX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -1.17% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.31% | |
| -3.33% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +6.56% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.49% | |
| -2.85% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.40% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.