Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what FDX is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$167.41
Method range
$139.97 – $322.21
median $184.14
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $167.41 | -47.85% |
| Exit multiple | $200.86 | -37.43% |
| Analyst target | $322.21 | +0.37% |
| Graham number | $139.97 | -56.40% |
- Forward DCF$167.41
- Exit multiple$200.86
- Analyst target$322.21
- Graham number$139.97
Stock price
$321.02
FCF / share (TTM)
$7.43
3Y FCF CAGR
16.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$234.68
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
21.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -36.8% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
16.7%
Your model implies
21.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 17% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.4% | 18.0% | 17.4% | 16.7% | 16.0% | 15.2% |
| 10.4% | 20.1% | 19.6% | 19.0% | 18.4% | 17.7% |
| 11.4% | 22.1% | 21.7% | 21.1% | 20.6% | 20.0% |
| 12.4% | 24.1% | 23.6% | 23.2% | 22.7% | 22.1% |
| 13.4% | 25.9% | 25.5% | 25.1% | 24.6% | 24.2% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.25
Low vs growth
Net debt
$29.6B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.34
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
FedEx (FDX) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks0.98% TTM
- Dividend Profile1.47% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History6 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.