General Mills (GIS) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.46), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, GIS sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 10, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.46+0.08 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.46 | +0.08 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.95% | -0.31pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.37% | +0.75pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 10 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.61 |
| Per-event yield | 1.66% |
| Annualized yield | 6.86% |
| Previously paid | Apr 10, 2026 ($0.61) |
| Last record date | Apr 10, 2026 |
| Last payment date | May 1, 2026 |
GIS Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for General Mills (GIS). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.61 | -1.77% | $36.75 | >30 | no | no | -7.37% | -1.74% | |
| Q1 | $0.61 | -1.18% | $43.92 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.32% | +2.73% | |
| Q4 | $0.61 | -0.83% | $49.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.52% | -0.43% | |
| Q3 | $0.61 | -1.89% | $51.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.22% | -0.59% | |
| Q2 | $0.60 | -1.05% | $58.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.19% | +0.09% | |
| Q1 | $0.60 | -1.26% | $60.97 | 7 | no | yes | -4.97% | -1.21% | |
| Q4 | $0.60 | -0.42% | $72.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.16% | -1.10% | |
| Q3 | $0.60 | -0.64% | $62.69 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.75% | +5.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.59 | -0.83% | $70.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.56% | -2.24% | |
| Q1 | $0.59 | -0.93% | $64.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.48% | -1.49% | |
| Q4 | $0.59 | -1.48% | $62.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.26% | +2.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.59 | -1.20% | $76.43 | 10 | no | yes | -3.14% | -1.09% | |
| Q2 | $0.54 | -0.37% | $87.06 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.65% | +0.05% | |
| Q1 | $0.54 | -0.84% | $85.96 | >30 | no | no | -10.81% | -4.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.54 | -0.90% | $77.69 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.21% | +2.15% | |
| Q3 | $0.54 | -0.67% | $76.22 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.16% | -1.29% | |
| Q2 | $0.51 | -0.52% | $69.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.05% | +2.44% | |
| Q1 | $0.51 | -0.58% | $68.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.59% | +2.80% | |
| Q4 | $0.51 | -0.69% | $62.13 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.69% | +1.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.51 | -0.89% | $60.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.06% | -0.17% |
- -1.74%
- +2.73%
- -0.43%
- -0.59%
- +0.09%
- -1.21%
- -1.10%
- +5.18%
- -2.24%
- -1.49%
- +2.04%
- -1.09%
- +0.05%
- -4.14%
- +2.15%
- -1.29%
- +2.44%
- +2.80%
- +1.19%
- -0.17%
GIS Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
GIS Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with GIS's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $122.00
- After-tax dividend
- $79.30
- Slippage round-trip
- -$7.35
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$71.95
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.98%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~49.3%
GIS Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical GIS ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · GIS (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.84% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.74% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.70% | |
| -4.14% | |
| +0.62% | |
| -1.09% | |
| +0.95% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.84% | |
| +0.96% | |
| +0.83% | |
| -1.21% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +1.19% | |
| +1.24% | |
| +1.39% | |
| -1.74% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.