General Motors (GM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 15 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.10), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, GM sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 4, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.10-0.11 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 15 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.10 | -0.11 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.09% | +0.57pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.98% | +0.70pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 3 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $0.18 |
| Per-event yield | 0.24% |
| Annualized yield | 0.80% |
| Previously paid | Mar 6, 2026 ($0.18) |
| Last record date | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 19, 2026 |
GM Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for General Motors (GM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.18 | -1.92% | $76.20 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.62% | -4.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.15 | -0.28% | $75.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.39% | +7.64% | |
| Q3 | $0.15 | -0.12% | $58.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.65% | +0.86% | |
| Q2 | $0.15 | 0.83% | $47.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.11% | +3.28% | |
| Q1 | $0.12 | 1.23% | $47.20 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.48% | +2.67% | |
| Q4 | $0.12 | 0.60% | $53.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.42% | -1.39% | |
| Q3 | $0.12 | -0.17% | $48.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.03% | -3.59% | |
| Q2 | $0.12 | -0.57% | $45.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.90% | +2.81% | |
| Q1 | $0.12 | 0.34% | $40.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.11% | -2.86% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | 0.47% | $31.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.25% | +6.33% | |
| Q3 | $0.09 | 0.36% | $33.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.10% | -1.05% | |
| Q2 | $0.09 | 0.25% | $32.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.83% | +10.89% | |
| Q1 | $0.09 | -0.80% | $38.72 | 1 | yes | yes | -13.15% | -2.09% | |
| Q4 | $0.09 | 0.52% | $40.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.91% | -5.60% | |
| Q3 | $0.09 | 0.63% | $39.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.06% | +1.75% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | -3.14% | $31.53 | >30 | no | no | -54.55% | -25.72% | |
| Q4 | $0.38 | -0.56% | $35.80 | 6 | no | yes | -2.35% | +1.90% | |
| Q3 | $0.38 | 0.99% | $38.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.63% | +3.16% | |
| Q2 | $0.38 | -2.09% | $35.84 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.85% | +1.56% | |
| Q1 | $0.38 | -1.47% | $38.67 | 3 | yes | yes | -4.89% | -0.67% |
- -4.76%
- +7.64%
- +0.86%
- +3.28%
- +2.67%
- -1.39%
- -3.59%
- +2.81%
- -2.86%
- +6.33%
- -1.05%
- +10.89%
- -2.09%
- -5.60%
- +1.75%
- -25.72%
- +1.90%
- +3.16%
- +1.56%
- -0.67%
GM Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 15 | 75% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
GM Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with GM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $36.00
- After-tax dividend
- $23.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$15.24
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$8.16
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.05%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~2.7%
GM Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical GM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · GM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.98% | |
| +1.06% | |
| +0.99% | |
| +1.90% | |
| -25.72% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.23% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.27% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.24% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.