HPQ dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 75% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
HP (HPQ) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 75% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.29), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, HPQ sits noticeably below the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Sep 9, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.30.
Touch rate (30d)
75%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.29
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 75% | -20pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.29 | +0.13 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.80% | -0.41pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 20% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.71% | -0.68pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 14 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.30
Per-event yield
1.20%
Annualized yield
4.42%
Previously paid
Jun 10, 2026 ($0.30)
Last record date
Jun 10, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 1, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for HP (HPQ). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.30 | -2.45% | $24.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.30% | -5.85% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.48% | $18.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.15% | -1.44% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -1.37% | $25.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.63% | -6.83% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -2.14% | $29.04 | >30 | no | no | -4.99% | -2.93% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -0.39% | $25.56 | 14 | no | yes | -8.26% | -4.27% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | -0.38% | $28.62 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.32% | +1.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | -0.26% | $34.94 | 2 | yes | yes | -8.01% | -6.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -0.87% | $33.47 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.33% | +3.99% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | 0.80% | $36.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.27% | +0.54% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -0.81% | $30.86 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.96% | -2.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -0.49% | $30.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.94% | +0.61% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -1.45% | $29.56 | >30 | no | no | -11.71% | -5.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | -0.33% | $30.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.68% | -1.08% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | -0.95% | $28.57 | 10 | no | yes | -5.74% | -1.74% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | 1.72% | $29.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.10% | -7.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -3.93% | $28.51 | >30 | no | no | -12.98% | -6.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -1.62% | $39.52 | >30 | no | no | -18.24% | -13.97% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.31% | $35.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.38% | -1.54% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | 1.00% | $36.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.69% | -2.92% | |
| Q3 | $0.19 | -1.21% | $29.86 | >30 | no | no | -10.21% | -7.05% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 5 | 25% |
Pre-filled with HPQ's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical HPQ ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-1.49%
Win rate (20 trades)
65%
Cumulative P&L
-29.81%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+0.78%
Best event
+1.60%
Worst event
-13.97%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · HPQ (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -7.05% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.70% | |
| -13.97% | |
| -6.35% | |
| +0.90% | |
| -1.74% | |
| +0.86% | |
| -5.84% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +1.01% | |
| -4.27% | |
| -2.93% | |
| +1.18% | |
| +1.60% | |
| +1.20% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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