HP (HPQ) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 74% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.29), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, HPQ sits noticeably below the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 9, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 74%-21pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.29+0.13 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 74% | -21pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.29 | +0.13 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.71% | -0.38pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 20% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.71% | -1.10pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 14 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $0.30 |
| Per-event yield | 1.60% |
| Annualized yield | 4.82% |
| Previously paid | Mar 11, 2026 ($0.30) |
| Last record date | Mar 11, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 1, 2026 |
HPQ Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for HP (HPQ). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.48% | $18.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.15% | -1.44% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -1.37% | $25.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.63% | -6.83% | |
| Q3 | $0.29 | -2.14% | $29.04 | >30 | no | no | -4.99% | -2.93% | |
| Q2 | $0.29 | -0.39% | $25.56 | 14 | no | yes | -8.26% | -4.27% | |
| Q1 | $0.29 | -0.38% | $28.62 | 2 | yes | yes | -3.32% | +1.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.29 | -0.26% | $34.94 | 2 | yes | yes | -8.01% | -6.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.28 | -0.87% | $33.47 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.33% | +3.99% | |
| Q2 | $0.28 | 0.80% | $36.32 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.27% | +0.54% | |
| Q1 | $0.28 | -0.81% | $30.86 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.96% | -2.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.28 | -0.49% | $30.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.94% | +0.61% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -1.45% | $29.56 | >30 | no | no | -11.71% | -5.84% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | -0.33% | $30.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.68% | -1.08% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | -0.95% | $28.57 | 10 | no | yes | -5.74% | -1.74% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | 1.72% | $29.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.10% | -7.40% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -3.93% | $28.51 | >30 | no | no | -12.98% | -6.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -1.62% | $39.52 | >30 | no | no | -18.24% | -13.97% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.31% | $35.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.38% | -1.54% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | 1.00% | $36.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.69% | -2.92% | |
| Q3 | $0.19 | -1.21% | $29.86 | >30 | no | no | -10.21% | -7.05% | |
| Q2 | $0.19 | -0.23% | $30.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.28% | -2.51% |
- -1.44%
- -6.83%
- -2.93%
- -4.27%
- +1.50%
- -6.18%
- +3.99%
- +0.54%
- -2.48%
- +0.61%
- -5.84%
- -1.08%
- -1.74%
- -7.40%
- -6.35%
- -13.97%
- -1.54%
- -2.92%
- -7.05%
- -2.51%
HPQ Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 5 | 25% |
HPQ Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with HPQ's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $60.00
- After-tax dividend
- $39.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$3.76
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$35.24
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.94%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~47.3%
HPQ Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical HPQ ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · HPQ (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.64% | |
| -7.05% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.70% | |
| -13.97% | |
| -6.35% | |
| +0.90% | |
| -1.74% | |
| +0.86% | |
| -5.84% | |
| +0.91% | |
| +0.89% | |
| +0.76% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.83% | |
| +1.01% | |
| -4.27% | |
| -2.93% | |
| +1.18% | |
| +1.60% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.