Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what HSY is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$98.01
Method range
$34.26 – $224.23
median $157.87
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $98.01 | -46.90% |
| Exit multiple | $217.73 | +17.96% |
| Analyst target | $224.23 | +21.48% |
| Graham number | $34.26 | -81.44% |
- Forward DCF$98.01
- Exit multiple$217.73
- Analyst target$224.23
- Graham number$34.26
Stock price
$184.58
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.78
3Y FCF CAGR
3.0%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$76.53
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
13.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -141.2% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
3.0%
Your model implies
13.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 3% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 16.9% | 15.2% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 8.0% |
| 5.0% | 16.9% | 15.2% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 8.0% |
| 5.0% | 16.9% | 15.2% | 13.3% | 11.0% | 8.0% |
| 6.0% | 20.6% | 19.3% | 17.9% | 16.2% | 14.3% |
| 7.0% | 23.8% | 22.8% | 21.6% | 20.3% | 18.9% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.69
Low vs growth
Net debt
$4.5B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.07
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Hershey (HSY) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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