Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what HSY is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$92.73
Method range
$34.26 – $220.15
median $154.82
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $92.73 | -46.19% |
| Exit multiple | $216.91 | +25.87% |
| Analyst target | $220.15 | +27.75% |
| Graham number | $34.26 | -80.12% |
- Forward DCF$92.73
- Exit multiple$216.91
- Analyst target$220.15
- Graham number$34.26
Stock price
$172.33
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.78
3Y FCF CAGR
3.0%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$71.90
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
13.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -139.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
3.0%
Your model implies
13.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 3% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 16.0% | 14.4% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 7.3% |
| 5.0% | 16.0% | 14.4% | 12.5% | 10.2% | 7.3% |
| 5.2% | 16.6% | 15.1% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 8.4% |
| 6.2% | 20.2% | 19.0% | 17.7% | 16.1% | 14.3% |
| 7.2% | 23.3% | 22.3% | 21.3% | 20.0% | 18.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.69
Low vs growth
Net debt
$4.48B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.10
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Hershey (HSY) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks0.16% TTM
- Dividend Profile3.28% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History4 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.