Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what HUM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$40.90
Method range
$40.90 – $294.57
median $187.99
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $40.90 | -88.32% |
| Exit multiple | $190.94 | -45.46% |
| Analyst target | $294.57 | -15.86% |
| Graham number | $185.04 | -47.14% |
- Forward DCF$40.90
- Exit multiple$190.94
- Analyst target$294.57
- Graham number$185.04
Stock price
$350.08
FCF / share (TTM)
$9.42
3Y FCF CAGR
-18.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$37.34
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
11.3%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -837.6% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
-18.7%
Your model implies
11.3%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at -19% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| 7.0% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% |
| 8.0% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 11.3% | 10.4% | 9.4% |
| 9.0% | 15.1% | 14.5% | 13.8% | 13.0% | 12.2% |
| 10.0% | 17.2% | 16.7% | 16.1% | 15.4% | 14.7% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$8.7B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.68
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Humana (HUM) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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