Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what HWM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,554.60
Method range
$21.17 – $1,554.60
median $234.97
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,554.60 | +517.15% |
| Exit multiple | $176.03 | -30.12% |
| Analyst target | $293.91 | +16.68% |
| Graham number | $21.17 | -91.60% |
- Forward DCF$1,554.60
- Exit multiple$176.03
- Analyst target$293.91
- Graham number$21.17
Stock price
$251.90
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.90
3Y FCF CAGR
57.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$493.36
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
46.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 48.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
57.4%
Your model implies
46.6%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 57% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | 42.5% | 41.6% | 40.6% | 39.5% | 38.3% |
| 9.5% | 45.4% | 44.6% | 43.7% | 42.8% | 41.7% |
| 10.5% | 48.2% | 47.4% | 46.6% | 45.8% | 44.9% |
| 11.5% | 50.7% | 50.1% | 49.4% | 48.6% | 47.8% |
| 12.5% | 53.2% | 52.6% | 52.0% | 51.3% | 50.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.71
Low vs growth
Net debt
$2.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.19
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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