Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what HWM is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$1,523.68
Method range
$21.17 – $1,523.68
median $238.06
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $1,523.68 | +442.81% |
| Exit multiple | $176.94 | -36.97% |
| Analyst target | $299.18 | +6.58% |
| Graham number | $21.17 | -92.46% |
- Forward DCF$1,523.68
- Exit multiple$176.94
- Analyst target$299.18
- Graham number$21.17
Stock price
$280.70
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.90
3Y FCF CAGR
57.4%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$483.40
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
48.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety 41.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
57.4%
Your model implies
48.6%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 57% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | 44.5% | 43.6% | 42.5% | 41.4% | 40.3% |
| 9.6% | 47.4% | 46.6% | 45.7% | 44.8% | 43.7% |
| 10.6% | 50.2% | 49.4% | 48.6% | 47.8% | 46.9% |
| 11.6% | 52.8% | 52.1% | 51.4% | 50.7% | 49.9% |
| 12.6% | 55.3% | 54.7% | 54.0% | 53.3% | 52.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
0.71
Low vs growth
Net debt
$2.31B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.19
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks1.01% TTM
- Dividend Profile0.17% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History6 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.