ITW dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.35), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ITW sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 29, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.35
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.35 | +0.18 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.56% | -0.23pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.09% | +0.93pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 20 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
Dividend
$1.61
Per-event yield
0.60%
Annualized yield
2.38%
Previously paid
Jun 30, 2026 ($1.61)
Last record date
Jun 30, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 10, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Illinois Tool Works (ITW). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.61 | -0.63% | $267.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.47% | -0.28% | |
| Q1 | $1.61 | 0.58% | $256.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.69% | +5.83% | |
| Q4 | $1.61 | -0.96% | $250.84 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.51% | +1.79% | |
| Q3 | $1.61 | -0.88% | $261.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.84% | -1.54% | |
| Q2 | $1.50 | -0.75% | $248.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.16% | +4.57% | |
| Q1 | $1.50 | -0.98% | $246.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.90% | -9.42% | |
| Q4 | $1.50 | -0.41% | $254.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.76% | -2.24% | |
| Q3 | $1.50 | -0.69% | $263.97 | 12 | no | yes | -4.11% | -2.44% | |
| Q2 | $1.40 | -0.27% | $237.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.95% | -0.88% | |
| Q1 | $1.40 | 0.11% | $265.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.93% | -0.87% | |
| Q4 | $1.40 | -0.63% | $263.67 | 20 | no | yes | -4.58% | -1.63% | |
| Q3 | $1.40 | -1.21% | $232.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.32% | +0.79% | |
| Q2 | $1.31 | -0.70% | $248.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.81% | -1.19% | |
| Q1 | $1.31 | -0.10% | $239.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.83% | -4.36% | |
| Q4 | $1.31 | 0.26% | $220.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.17% | +3.55% | |
| Q3 | $1.31 | -1.99% | $188.47 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.35% | +2.51% | |
| Q2 | $1.22 | -0.46% | $182.99 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.26% | +2.11% | |
| Q1 | $1.22 | -0.92% | $218.57 | >30 | no | no | -9.05% | -5.59% | |
| Q4 | $1.22 | -0.28% | $247.07 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.76% | +0.30% | |
| Q3 | $1.22 | -0.29% | $213.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.61% | -0.12% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with ITW's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical ITW ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.02%
Win rate (20 trades)
85%
Cumulative P&L
+0.45%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+39.63%
Best event
+0.70%
Worst event
-5.59%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ITW (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.57% | |
| +0.49% | |
| -5.59% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.60% | |
| -1.63% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.59% | |
| -2.44% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.60% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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