Illinois Tool Works (ITW) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.35), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, ITW sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 30, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.61.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.35+0.17 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.35 | +0.17 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.53% | -0.17pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.09% | +0.94pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 20 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $1.61 |
| Per-event yield | 0.63% |
| Annualized yield | 2.44% |
| Previously paid | Mar 31, 2026 ($1.61) |
| Last record date | Mar 31, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 9, 2026 |
ITW Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Illinois Tool Works (ITW). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.61 | 0.58% | $256.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.69% | +5.83% | |
| Q4 | $1.61 | -0.96% | $250.84 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.51% | +1.79% | |
| Q3 | $1.61 | -0.88% | $261.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.84% | -1.54% | |
| Q2 | $1.50 | -0.75% | $248.06 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.16% | +4.57% | |
| Q1 | $1.50 | -0.98% | $246.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -12.90% | -9.42% | |
| Q4 | $1.50 | -0.41% | $254.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.76% | -2.24% | |
| Q3 | $1.50 | -0.69% | $263.97 | 12 | no | yes | -4.11% | -2.44% | |
| Q2 | $1.40 | -0.27% | $237.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.95% | -0.88% | |
| Q1 | $1.40 | 0.11% | $265.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.93% | -0.87% | |
| Q4 | $1.40 | -0.63% | $263.67 | 20 | no | yes | -4.58% | -1.63% | |
| Q3 | $1.40 | -1.21% | $232.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.32% | +0.79% | |
| Q2 | $1.31 | -0.70% | $248.07 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.81% | -1.19% | |
| Q1 | $1.31 | -0.10% | $239.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.83% | -4.36% | |
| Q4 | $1.31 | 0.26% | $220.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.17% | +3.55% | |
| Q3 | $1.31 | -1.99% | $188.47 | 4 | yes | yes | -4.35% | +2.51% | |
| Q2 | $1.22 | -0.46% | $182.99 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.26% | +2.11% | |
| Q1 | $1.22 | -0.92% | $218.57 | >30 | no | no | -9.05% | -5.59% | |
| Q4 | $1.22 | -0.28% | $247.07 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.76% | +0.30% | |
| Q3 | $1.22 | -0.29% | $213.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.61% | -0.12% | |
| Q2 | $1.14 | -0.01% | $224.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +0.77% |
- +5.83%
- +1.79%
- -1.54%
- +4.57%
- -9.42%
- -2.24%
- -2.44%
- -0.88%
- -0.87%
- -1.63%
- +0.79%
- -1.19%
- -4.36%
- +3.55%
- +2.51%
- +2.11%
- -5.59%
- +0.30%
- -0.12%
- +0.77%
ITW Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 12 | 60% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
ITW Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with ITW's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $322.00
- After-tax dividend
- $209.30
- Slippage round-trip
- -$51.24
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$158.06
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.31%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~15.5%
ITW Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical ITW ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · ITW (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.51% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.49% | |
| -5.59% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.70% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.60% | |
| -1.63% | |
| +0.53% | |
| +0.59% | |
| -2.44% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.62% | |
| +0.64% | |
| +0.63% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.