Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what ITW is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$254.34
Method range
$25.91 – $271.29
median $247.99
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $254.34 | +0.64% |
| Exit multiple | $241.64 | -4.38% |
| Analyst target | $271.29 | +7.35% |
| Graham number | $25.91 | -89.75% |
- Forward DCF$254.34
- Exit multiple$241.64
- Analyst target$271.29
- Graham number$25.91
Stock price
$252.72
FCF / share (TTM)
$1.83
3Y FCF CAGR
6.7%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$34.87
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
34.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -624.7% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
6.7%
Your model implies
34.1%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 7% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | 30.2% | 29.2% | 28.2% | 27.1% | 25.8% |
| 8.8% | 33.0% | 32.1% | 31.3% | 30.3% | 29.3% |
| 9.8% | 35.6% | 34.8% | 34.1% | 33.3% | 32.4% |
| 10.8% | 38.0% | 37.4% | 36.7% | 36.0% | 35.2% |
| 11.8% | 40.3% | 39.8% | 39.1% | 38.5% | 37.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$8.1B
Total debt − cash
Beta
1.05
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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