JPMorgan Chase (JPM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.32), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, JPM sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jul 6, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.50.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.32in line with sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.32 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.82% | -0.24pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.12% | +0.26pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 8 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $1.50 |
| Per-event yield | 0.51% |
| Annualized yield | 1.84% |
| Previously paid | Apr 6, 2026 ($1.50) |
| Last record date | Apr 6, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 30, 2026 |
JPM Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for JPMorgan Chase (JPM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.50 | -0.18% | $294.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.64% | +6.99% | |
| Q1 | $1.50 | -0.43% | $334.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.63% | -6.48% | |
| Q4 | $1.50 | 0.05% | $310.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.11% | -0.18% | |
| Q3 | $1.40 | 0.05% | $292.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.00% | -1.28% | |
| Q2 | $1.40 | -5.85% | $228.69 | 4 | yes | yes | -11.60% | +3.90% | |
| Q1 | $1.25 | 0.17% | $243.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.87% | +2.24% | |
| Q4 | $1.25 | 1.98% | $205.23 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.82% | +8.92% | |
| Q3 | $1.15 | -0.81% | $208.69 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.16% | -1.25% | |
| Q2 | $1.15 | 0.43% | $198.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.63% | -0.87% | |
| Q1 | $1.05 | -0.40% | $171.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.10% | +0.01% | |
| Q4 | $1.05 | -0.91% | $143.35 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +2.45% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -1.14% | $146.61 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.53% | +1.73% | |
| Q2 | $1.00 | -1.26% | $128.42 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.71% | +1.22% | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | -0.53% | $136.38 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.05% | +3.01% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -2.68% | $112.77 | 8 | no | yes | -10.19% | -7.24% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -2.88% | $114.05 | 3 | yes | yes | -7.01% | -0.07% | |
| Q2 | $1.00 | -1.35% | $135.91 | >30 | no | no | -8.01% | -2.48% | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | -0.01% | $167.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.49% | +0.96% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | 0.16% | $166.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.13% | -0.35% | |
| Q3 | $0.90 | -0.72% | $157.08 | 6 | no | yes | -4.48% | +1.16% |
- +6.99%
- -6.48%
- -0.18%
- -1.28%
- +3.90%
- +2.24%
- +8.92%
- -1.25%
- -0.87%
- +0.01%
- +2.45%
- +1.73%
- +1.22%
- +3.01%
- -7.24%
- -0.07%
- -2.48%
- +0.96%
- -0.35%
- +1.16%
JPM Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 10 | 50% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
JPM Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with JPM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $300.00
- After-tax dividend
- $195.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$58.92
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$136.08
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.23%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~11.6%
JPM Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical JPM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · JPM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.16% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.60% | |
| -2.48% | |
| +0.88% | |
| -7.24% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.51% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.