JPM dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.32), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, JPM sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 5, 2026 (±2 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.32
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.32 | in line with sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.77% | -0.19pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.05% | +0.35pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 8 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±2 days.
Dividend
$1.50
Per-event yield
0.45%
Annualized yield
1.78%
Previously paid
Jul 6, 2026 ($1.50)
Last record date
Jul 6, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 31, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for JPMorgan Chase (JPM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $1.50 | 0.16% | $334.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.61% | +0.47% | |
| Q2 | $1.50 | -0.18% | $294.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.64% | +6.99% | |
| Q1 | $1.50 | -0.43% | $334.04 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.63% | -6.48% | |
| Q4 | $1.50 | 0.05% | $310.03 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.11% | -0.18% | |
| Q3 | $1.40 | 0.05% | $292.00 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.00% | -1.28% | |
| Q2 | $1.40 | -5.85% | $228.69 | 4 | yes | yes | -11.60% | +3.90% | |
| Q1 | $1.25 | 0.17% | $243.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.87% | +2.24% | |
| Q4 | $1.25 | 1.98% | $205.23 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.82% | +8.92% | |
| Q3 | $1.15 | -0.81% | $208.69 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.16% | -1.25% | |
| Q2 | $1.15 | 0.43% | $198.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -9.63% | -0.87% | |
| Q1 | $1.05 | -0.40% | $171.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.10% | +0.01% | |
| Q4 | $1.05 | -0.91% | $143.35 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.76% | +2.45% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -1.14% | $146.61 | 5 | yes | yes | -3.53% | +1.73% | |
| Q2 | $1.00 | -1.26% | $128.42 | 4 | yes | yes | -1.71% | +1.22% | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | -0.53% | $136.38 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.05% | +3.01% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | -2.68% | $112.77 | 8 | no | yes | -10.19% | -7.24% | |
| Q3 | $1.00 | -2.88% | $114.05 | 3 | yes | yes | -7.01% | -0.07% | |
| Q2 | $1.00 | -1.35% | $135.91 | >30 | no | no | -8.01% | -2.48% | |
| Q1 | $1.00 | -0.01% | $167.83 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.49% | +0.96% | |
| Q4 | $1.00 | 0.16% | $166.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.13% | -0.35% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 11 | 55% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with JPM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical JPM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.06%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+1.13%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+116.48%
Best event
+0.88%
Worst event
-7.24%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · JPM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.60% | |
| +0.60% | |
| -2.48% | |
| +0.88% | |
| -7.24% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.73% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.61% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.45% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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