KHC dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 80% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Kraft Heinz (KHC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 80% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.65), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, KHC sits noticeably below the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 4, 2026 (±5 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
80%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.65
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 80% | -15pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.65 | +0.27 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -1.58% | -0.94pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 35% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.89% | in line with sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 23 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±5 days.
Dividend
$0.40
Per-event yield
1.78%
Annualized yield
7.09%
Previously paid
Jun 5, 2026 ($0.40)
Last record date
Jun 5, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 26, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Kraft Heinz (KHC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.40 | -0.85% | $22.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.42% | +10.32% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -1.57% | $24.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.36% | -5.16% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -1.64% | $25.60 | >30 | no | no | -5.98% | -3.36% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -1.37% | $27.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.51% | -1.23% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | -1.67% | $27.02 | 23 | no | yes | -3.15% | +0.41% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -1.05% | $31.28 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.08% | -2.08% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -0.72% | $31.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.07% | -2.25% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -1.30% | $35.26 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.67% | +3.37% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | -1.33% | $34.67 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.67% | -4.99% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -0.34% | $35.35 | 10 | no | yes | -3.56% | -1.78% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -1.20% | $35.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.23% | +5.19% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -1.10% | $33.67 | 7 | no | yes | -3.71% | -0.92% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | -1.32% | $38.51 | >30 | no | no | -5.79% | -3.97% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -1.17% | $38.32 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.35% | +0.68% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -1.21% | $38.96 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.51% | +2.39% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.95% | $38.91 | >30 | no | no | -7.94% | -2.08% | |
| Q2 | $0.40 | -8.48% | $39.88 | >30 | no | no | -12.84% | -7.97% | |
| Q1 | $0.40 | -1.75% | $38.18 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.88% | -0.08% | |
| Q4 | $0.40 | -1.70% | $35.82 | 16 | no | yes | -8.49% | -6.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.40 | -0.94% | $36.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.05% | +3.71% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 9 | 45% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 4 | 20% |
Pre-filled with KHC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical KHC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.53%
Win rate (20 trades)
65%
Cumulative P&L
-10.68%
Buy & hold (same sample)
-15.34%
Best event
+1.78%
Worst event
-7.97%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · KHC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.11% | |
| -6.06% | |
| +1.05% | |
| -7.97% | |
| -2.08% | |
| +1.03% | |
| +1.04% | |
| -3.97% | |
| -0.92% | |
| +1.14% | |
| -1.78% | |
| +1.15% | |
| +1.13% | |
| +1.25% | |
| +1.28% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +1.45% | |
| -3.36% | |
| +1.65% | |
| +1.78% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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