Kimco Realty (KIM) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 89% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.56), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, KIM sits noticeably below the Real Estate sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 4, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 89%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.56+0.13 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 89% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.56 | +0.13 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.87% | in line with sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 40% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -4.76% | in line with sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 27 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $0.26 |
| Per-event yield | 1.11% |
| Annualized yield | 4.25% |
| Previously paid | Mar 6, 2026 ($0.26) |
| Last record date | Mar 6, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 19, 2026 |
KIM Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Kimco Realty (KIM). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.26 | -1.74% | $23.51 | 27 | no | yes | -3.87% | -1.45% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | -1.57% | $20.36 | 6 | no | yes | -2.95% | +0.29% | |
| Q3 | $0.25 | -0.39% | $22.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.82% | -0.66% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | -0.53% | $20.82 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.91% | +1.25% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.84% | $21.47 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.85% | -2.98% | |
| Q4 | $0.25 | -1.19% | $25.30 | >30 | no | no | -8.02% | -2.21% | |
| Q3 | $0.24 | -0.47% | $23.35 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.27% | +2.31% | |
| Q2 | $0.24 | -1.76% | $19.29 | 16 | no | yes | -5.81% | -1.71% | |
| Q1 | $0.24 | -0.61% | $19.68 | 3 | yes | yes | -5.64% | -0.36% | |
| Q4 | $0.33 | -1.27% | $20.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.21% | +6.13% | |
| Q3 | $0.23 | -1.13% | $18.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.46% | +1.46% | |
| Q2 | $0.23 | -0.32% | $18.95 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.79% | +3.06% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | -1.01% | $19.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.65% | -4.11% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | -0.14% | $21.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.14% | -1.05% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | -1.98% | $21.75 | 2 | yes | yes | -8.97% | -3.91% | |
| Q2 | $0.20 | -1.69% | $23.03 | >30 | no | no | -19.58% | -15.28% | |
| Q1 | $0.19 | 1.65% | $23.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.24% | +1.60% | |
| Q4 | $0.17 | -0.51% | $23.61 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.24% | -2.67% | |
| Q3 | $0.17 | -1.05% | $21.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.44% | +1.10% | |
| Q2 | $0.17 | -0.50% | $22.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.11% | -2.45% |
- -1.45%
- +0.29%
- -0.66%
- +1.25%
- -2.98%
- -2.21%
- +2.31%
- -1.71%
- -0.36%
- +6.13%
- +1.46%
- +3.06%
- -4.11%
- -1.05%
- -3.91%
- -15.28%
- +1.60%
- -2.67%
- +1.10%
- -2.45%
KIM Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
KIM Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with KIM's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $52.00
- After-tax dividend
- $33.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$4.70
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$29.10
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.62%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~31.2%
KIM Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical KIM ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · KIM (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.77% | |
| +0.78% | |
| +0.72% | |
| +0.80% | |
| -15.28% | |
| +1.01% | |
| +1.05% | |
| +1.17% | |
| +1.21% | |
| +1.24% | |
| +1.61% | |
| +1.22% | |
| -1.71% | |
| +1.03% | |
| -2.21% | |
| +1.16% | |
| +1.20% | |
| +1.10% | |
| +0.29% | |
| -1.45% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.