LLY dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Eli Lilly (LLY) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.08), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, LLY sits roughly in line with the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 14, 2026, with an expected dividend of $1.73.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.08
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.08 | -0.07 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.13% | +0.47pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 75% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.54% | +1.77pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 8 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$1.73
Per-event yield
0.17%
Annualized yield
0.60%
Previously paid
May 15, 2026 ($1.73)
Last record date
May 15, 2026
Last payment date
Jun 10, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Eli Lilly (LLY). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $1.73 | 0.03% | $1,006.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.76% | +5.96% | |
| Q1 | $1.73 | 0.16% | $1,038.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.45% | +2.12% | |
| Q4 | $1.50 | -1.36% | $1,022.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.40% | +3.75% | |
| Q3 | $1.50 | 1.43% | $684.43 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.11% | +4.20% | |
| Q2 | $1.50 | 0.92% | $733.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.31% | -2.47% | |
| Q1 | $1.50 | -0.32% | $871.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.48% | +1.27% | |
| Q4 | $1.30 | -1.40% | $786.23 | 8 | no | yes | -9.52% | -4.70% | |
| Q3 | $1.30 | 0.46% | $931.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.63% | +2.55% | |
| Q2 | $1.30 | 0.02% | $763.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.12% | +5.27% | |
| Q1 | $1.30 | 0.38% | $742.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.31% | +3.76% | |
| Q4 | $1.13 | -0.73% | $612.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.05% | -3.10% | |
| Q3 | $1.13 | 0.57% | $528.28 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.18% | +4.33% | |
| Q2 | $1.13 | 1.06% | $435.55 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.62% | +1.83% | |
| Q1 | $1.13 | 0.04% | $350.40 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.63% | -5.76% | |
| Q4 | $0.98 | 1.92% | $352.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.46% | +2.80% | |
| Q3 | $0.98 | 0.58% | $301.17 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.04% | +7.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.98 | 0.28% | $291.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.55% | +2.75% | |
| Q1 | $0.98 | -0.74% | $235.74 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.64% | +1.85% | |
| Q4 | $0.85 | -0.32% | $262.63 | 4 | yes | yes | -2.53% | -0.41% | |
| Q3 | $0.85 | -0.34% | $264.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.06% | +2.71% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with LLY's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical LLY ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.01%
Win rate (20 trades)
95%
Cumulative P&L
-0.15%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+289.90%
Best event
+0.42%
Worst event
-4.70%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · LLY (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.32% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.28% | |
| +0.32% | |
| +0.26% | |
| +0.21% | |
| +0.18% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.14% | |
| -4.70% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.22% | |
| +0.15% | |
| +0.17% | |
| +0.17% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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