Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what LLY is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$4,739.33
Method range
$80.55 – $4,739.33
median $1,574.82
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $4,739.33 | +307.51% |
| Exit multiple | $1,834.22 | +57.71% |
| Analyst target | $1,315.42 | +13.10% |
| Graham number | $80.55 | -93.07% |
- Forward DCF$4,739.33
- Exit multiple$1,834.22
- Analyst target$1,315.42
- Graham number$80.55
Stock price
$1,163.01
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.36
3Y FCF CAGR
15.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$203.49
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
38.9%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -471.5% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
15.3%
Your model implies
38.9%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 15% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | 33.6% | 31.8% | 29.7% | 27.2% | 24.1% |
| 6.2% | 37.8% | 36.3% | 34.8% | 32.9% | 30.8% |
| 7.2% | 41.4% | 40.2% | 38.9% | 37.5% | 35.9% |
| 8.2% | 44.7% | 43.7% | 42.6% | 41.4% | 40.1% |
| 9.2% | 47.7% | 46.9% | 45.9% | 44.9% | 43.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
2.40
Demanding vs growth
Net debt
$35.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.51
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Eli Lilly (LLY) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks0.64% TTM
- Dividend Profile0.56% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History4 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.