Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what LLY is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$5,059.56
Method range
$80.55 – $5,059.56
median $1,584.93
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $5,059.56 | +347.19% |
| Exit multiple | $1,903.70 | +68.26% |
| Analyst target | $1,266.17 | +11.91% |
| Graham number | $80.55 | -92.88% |
- Forward DCF$5,059.56
- Exit multiple$1,903.70
- Analyst target$1,266.17
- Graham number$80.55
Stock price
$1131.42
FCF / share (TTM)
$3.36
3Y FCF CAGR
15.3%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$216.29
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
37.6%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -423.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
15.3%
Your model implies
37.6%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 15% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 32.3% | 30.4% | 28.2% | 25.5% | 22.1% |
| 6.0% | 36.4% | 34.9% | 33.2% | 31.3% | 29.0% |
| 7.0% | 40.2% | 38.9% | 37.6% | 36.1% | 34.4% |
| 8.0% | 43.5% | 42.5% | 41.3% | 40.1% | 38.7% |
| 9.0% | 46.6% | 45.7% | 44.7% | 43.7% | 42.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
2.40
Demanding vs growth
Net debt
$35.3B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.48
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
Eli Lilly (LLY) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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