Lam Research (LRCX) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.61), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, LRCX sits roughly in line with the Technology sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 16, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.61+0.45 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.61 | +0.45 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.20% | +0.53pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 65% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -5.27% | -0.65pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 4 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.26 |
| Per-event yield | 0.12% |
| Annualized yield | 0.28% |
| Previously paid | Mar 4, 2026 ($0.26) |
| Last record date | Mar 4, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 8, 2026 |
LRCX Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Lam Research (LRCX). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.26 | 2.04% | $217.27 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.67% | +0.86% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | -0.82% | $158.19 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.19% | +6.53% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -1.46% | $131.93 | 4 | yes | yes | -5.24% | +8.43% | |
| Q2 | $0.23 | 0.42% | $92.66 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.30% | +4.76% | |
| Q1 | $0.23 | 0.42% | $76.44 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.22% | +0.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.23 | 1.58% | $75.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.62% | +0.40% | |
| Q3 | $2.30 | 1.86% | $75.85 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.76% | +7.33% | |
| Q2 | $2.00 | -0.07% | $107.17 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.52% | +0.38% | |
| Q1 | $2.00 | 0.25% | $93.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.75% | +2.14% | |
| Q4 | $2.00 | -0.35% | $73.56 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.92% | +8.89% | |
| Q3 | $2.00 | -1.43% | $66.37 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.24% | -2.79% | |
| Q2 | $1.73 | -0.40% | $62.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.64% | -0.71% | |
| Q1 | $1.73 | 1.70% | $47.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.63% | +9.99% | |
| Q4 | $1.73 | 4.57% | $46.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -14.47% | -2.08% | |
| Q3 | $1.73 | -4.09% | $44.73 | >30 | no | no | -17.04% | -5.96% | |
| Q2 | $1.50 | 1.39% | $44.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.98% | -1.45% | |
| Q1 | $1.50 | 1.32% | $46.90 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.55% | +19.79% | |
| Q4 | $1.50 | -1.52% | $68.50 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.54% | +1.91% | |
| Q3 | $1.50 | -1.55% | $61.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.05% | -7.74% | |
| Q2 | $1.30 | -0.51% | $65.02 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.40% | -2.37% |
- +0.86%
- +6.53%
- +8.43%
- +4.76%
- +0.50%
- +0.40%
- +7.33%
- +0.38%
- +2.14%
- +8.89%
- -2.79%
- -0.71%
- +9.99%
- -2.08%
- -5.96%
- -1.45%
- +19.79%
- +1.91%
- -7.74%
- -2.37%
LRCX Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 17 | 85% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
LRCX Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with LRCX's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $52.00
- After-tax dividend
- $33.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$43.45
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- $-9.65
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.02%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- -0.02%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~-1.1%
LRCX Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical LRCX ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · LRCX (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +2.00% | |
| +2.45% | |
| +2.19% | |
| +3.20% | |
| +3.35% | |
| -5.96% | |
| +3.72% | |
| +3.62% | |
| +2.75% | |
| +3.01% | |
| +2.72% | |
| +2.15% | |
| +1.87% | |
| +3.03% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.30% | |
| +0.25% | |
| +0.20% | |
| +0.16% | |
| +0.12% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.