MAIN dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 95% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Main Street Capital (MAIN) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.23), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MAIN sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Aug 7, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.27.
Touch rate (30d)
95%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.23
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.23 | -0.07 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.22% | +0.37pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.92% | +1.48pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 28 | — |
Confirmed by company declaration.
Dividend
$0.27
Per-event yield
0.51%
Annualized yield
7.73%
Previously paid
Jul 8, 2026 ($0.27)
Last record date
Jul 8, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 15, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Main Street Capital (MAIN). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.27 | -1.11% | $52.41 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.77% | +2.41% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.49% | $50.97 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.02% | +1.75% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | -0.50% | $51.81 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.82% | -0.50% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | -1.50% | $56.60 | 1 | yes | yes | -11.93% | -10.41% | |
| Q2 | $0.26 | 1.87% | $53.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.22% | +7.59% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.54% | $55.69 | 4 | yes | yes | -8.83% | -6.93% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | -1.90% | $58.30 | 28 | no | yes | -7.00% | -5.40% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | 0.55% | $59.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.71% | -0.33% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | -0.43% | $60.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.58% | +6.11% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -0.45% | $60.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.14% | +0.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | 0.02% | $60.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.45% | +0.49% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | 0.56% | $57.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.52% | +2.67% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | -0.36% | $61.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.86% | -5.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | -0.44% | $66.13 | >30 | no | no | -5.94% | -3.15% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -0.35% | $66.52 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.59% | -1.65% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | 0.90% | $63.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.33% | +4.45% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -0.71% | $60.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.79% | +4.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.19% | $58.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.55% | +1.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | 0.23% | $56.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.11% | +2.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | 0.45% | $53.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.65% | +1.59% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
Pre-filled with MAIN's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical MAIN ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
-0.01%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
-0.21%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+5.65%
Best event
+0.59%
Worst event
-5.40%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MAIN (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.47% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.38% | |
| -3.15% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.43% | |
| -5.40% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.48% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.51% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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