Main Street Capital (MAIN) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.22), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MAIN sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 22, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.30.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.22-0.09 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.22 | -0.09 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | 0.07% | +0.65pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.37% | +1.00pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 28 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.30 |
| Per-event yield | 0.56% |
| Annualized yield | 7.91% |
| Previously paid | Apr 8, 2026 ($0.26) |
| Last record date | Apr 8, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 15, 2026 |
MAIN Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Main Street Capital (MAIN). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.26 | 1.87% | $53.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.22% | +7.59% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.54% | $55.69 | 4 | yes | yes | -8.83% | -6.93% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | -1.90% | $58.30 | 28 | no | yes | -7.00% | -5.40% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | 0.55% | $59.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.71% | -0.33% | |
| Q1 | $0.26 | -0.43% | $60.75 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.58% | +6.11% | |
| Q4 | $0.30 | -0.45% | $60.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.14% | +0.50% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | 0.02% | $60.73 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.45% | +0.49% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | 0.56% | $57.15 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.52% | +2.67% | |
| Q4 | $0.26 | -0.36% | $61.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.86% | -5.48% | |
| Q3 | $0.30 | -0.44% | $66.13 | >30 | no | no | -5.94% | -3.15% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -0.35% | $66.52 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.59% | -1.65% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | 0.90% | $63.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.33% | +4.45% | |
| Q3 | $0.26 | -0.71% | $60.98 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.79% | +4.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.30 | -0.19% | $58.51 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.55% | +1.28% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | 0.23% | $56.77 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.11% | +2.18% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | 0.45% | $53.39 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.65% | +1.59% | |
| Q2 | $0.25 | 3.28% | $50.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.56% | +7.22% | |
| Q1 | $0.30 | -0.76% | $58.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.86% | -0.76% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.33% | $56.94 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.23% | -0.76% | |
| Q1 | $0.25 | -0.05% | $61.13 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.93% | +0.97% |
- +7.59%
- -6.93%
- -5.40%
- -0.33%
- +6.11%
- +0.50%
- +0.49%
- +2.67%
- -5.48%
- -3.15%
- -1.65%
- +4.45%
- +4.55%
- +1.28%
- +2.18%
- +1.59%
- +7.22%
- -0.76%
- -0.76%
- +0.97%
MAIN Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 16 | 80% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
MAIN Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MAIN's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $60.00
- After-tax dividend
- $39.00
- Slippage round-trip
- -$10.80
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$28.20
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.26%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~13.2%
MAIN Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MAIN ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MAIN (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.41% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.52% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.44% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.40% | |
| +0.38% | |
| -3.15% | |
| +0.41% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.50% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.43% | |
| -5.40% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.48% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.