McDonald's (MCD) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.40), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MCD sits roughly in line with the Consumer Cyclical sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 1, 2026 (±1 day), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%in line with sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.40+0.19 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | in line with sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.40 | +0.19 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.62% | -0.15pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.97% | +1.71pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 23 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±1 day.
| Dividend | $1.86 |
| Per-event yield | 0.56% |
| Annualized yield | 2.66% |
| Previously paid | Mar 3, 2026 ($1.86) |
| Last record date | Mar 3, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Mar 17, 2026 |
MCD Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for McDonald's (MCD). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $1.86 | -1.41% | $334.82 | >30 | no | no | -4.03% | -1.50% | |
| Q4 | $1.86 | -0.75% | $311.82 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.92% | -0.05% | |
| Q3 | $1.77 | -0.16% | $313.54 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.16% | +0.24% | |
| Q2 | $1.77 | -0.99% | $313.85 | 2 | yes | yes | -5.31% | -2.33% | |
| Q1 | $1.77 | -0.07% | $308.33 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.09% | +3.47% | |
| Q4 | $1.77 | -0.85% | $296.01 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.93% | +2.41% | |
| Q3 | $1.67 | -0.80% | $288.66 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.71% | +1.48% | |
| Q2 | $1.67 | -0.37% | $258.89 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.20% | -1.32% | |
| Q1 | $1.67 | -0.34% | $295.19 | 8 | no | yes | -4.26% | -0.82% | |
| Q4 | $1.67 | 0.01% | $280.38 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.83% | +2.88% | |
| Q3 | $1.52 | -0.36% | $284.24 | 10 | no | yes | -3.25% | -1.23% | |
| Q2 | $1.52 | -0.41% | $287.87 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.73% | +0.15% | |
| Q1 | $1.52 | -0.62% | $264.78 | 3 | yes | yes | -1.67% | +1.46% | |
| Q4 | $1.52 | -0.66% | $271.41 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.95% | +0.17% | |
| Q3 | $1.38 | 0.27% | $253.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.68% | +3.14% | |
| Q2 | $1.38 | -0.78% | $250.38 | 20 | no | yes | -7.07% | -4.64% | |
| Q1 | $1.38 | -2.01% | $249.45 | 23 | no | yes | -12.74% | -9.52% | |
| Q4 | $1.38 | -1.17% | $250.30 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.54% | +4.39% | |
| Q3 | $1.29 | -0.36% | $236.59 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.81% | +1.40% | |
| Q2 | $1.29 | -0.31% | $234.86 | 2 | yes | yes | -2.01% | -0.80% |
- -1.50%
- -0.05%
- +0.24%
- -2.33%
- +3.47%
- +2.41%
- +1.48%
- -1.32%
- -0.82%
- +2.88%
- -1.23%
- +0.15%
- +1.46%
- +0.17%
- +3.14%
- -4.64%
- -9.52%
- +4.39%
- +1.40%
- -0.80%
MCD Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 8 | 40% | |
| 2–3 days | 6 | 30% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
MCD Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MCD's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $372.00
- After-tax dividend
- $241.80
- Slippage round-trip
- -$66.96
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$174.84
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.26%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~13.2%
MCD Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MCD ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MCD (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.55% | |
| +0.55% | |
| +0.55% | |
| -9.52% | |
| -4.64% | |
| +0.54% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.53% | |
| -1.23% | |
| +0.60% | |
| -0.82% | |
| +0.65% | |
| +0.58% | |
| +0.60% | |
| +0.57% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.56% | |
| +0.60% | |
| -1.50% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.