Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MCD is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$723.53
Method range
$310.16 – $723.53
median $347.33
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $723.53 | +158.55% |
| Exit multiple | $310.16 | +10.83% |
| Analyst target | $347.33 | +24.12% |
| Graham number | — | — |
- Forward DCF$723.53
- Exit multiple$310.16
- Analyst target$347.33
- Graham number—
Stock price
$279.84
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.43
3Y FCF CAGR
1.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$54.40
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
22.0%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -414.4% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
1.5%
Your model implies
22.0%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 2% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 18.2% | 16.5% | 14.6% | 12.2% | 9.2% |
| 5.7% | 21.0% | 19.6% | 18.1% | 16.3% | 14.1% |
| 6.7% | 24.4% | 23.3% | 22.0% | 20.7% | 19.1% |
| 7.7% | 27.4% | 26.4% | 25.4% | 24.3% | 23.1% |
| 8.7% | 30.1% | 29.3% | 28.4% | 27.5% | 26.5% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$54.0B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.44
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
McDonald's (MCD) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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