Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MCD is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$717.84
Method range
$308.91 – $717.84
median $342.39
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $717.84 | +172.35% |
| Exit multiple | $308.91 | +17.20% |
| Analyst target | $342.39 | +29.90% |
| Graham number | — | — |
- Forward DCF$717.84
- Exit multiple$308.91
- Analyst target$342.39
- Graham number—
Stock price
$263.57
FCF / share (TTM)
$2.43
3Y FCF CAGR
1.5%
Fair value @ hist. growth
$54.03
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
21.4%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -387.9% vs hist-growth DCF
Historical 3Y CAGR
1.5%
Your model implies
21.4%
Analyst consensus is EPS-only — no comparable FCF / share estimate to show on this basis.
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 2% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 17.4% | 15.8% | 13.9% | 11.5% | 8.6% |
| 5.8% | 20.3% | 19.0% | 17.4% | 15.7% | 13.5% |
| 6.8% | 23.6% | 22.6% | 21.4% | 20.0% | 18.5% |
| 7.8% | 26.6% | 25.7% | 24.7% | 23.6% | 22.4% |
| 8.8% | 29.3% | 28.5% | 27.7% | 26.8% | 25.8% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
Net debt
$54B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.42
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
McDonald's (MCD) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks0.89% TTM
- Dividend Profile2.79% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History9 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.