Medtronic (MDT) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 95% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 2 trading days (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.43), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MDT sits roughly in line with the Healthcare sector benchmark of 100%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, so this ticker touches more slowly than peers.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next confirmed ex-dividend date is Jun 26, 2026, with an expected dividend of $0.72.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 95%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 2d+1.0d vs sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.43+0.28 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 95% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 2d | +1.0d vs sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.43 | +0.28 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.60% | -0.27pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 45% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.85% | +1.55pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 25 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Confirmed by company declaration.
| Dividend | $0.72 |
| Per-event yield | 0.82% |
| Annualized yield | 3.59% |
| Previously paid | Mar 27, 2026 ($0.71) |
| Last record date | Mar 27, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 17, 2026 |
MDT Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Medtronic (MDT). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.71 | -0.40% | $87.67 | 8 | no | yes | -3.14% | -0.78% | |
| Q4 | $0.71 | -0.58% | $97.27 | 6 | no | yes | -2.16% | +0.82% | |
| Q3 | $0.71 | -0.48% | $94.30 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.58% | +4.36% | |
| Q2 | $0.71 | -0.79% | $86.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.11% | +2.55% | |
| Q1 | $0.70 | -1.27% | $88.98 | 2 | yes | yes | -10.60% | -6.07% | |
| Q4 | $0.70 | -1.30% | $81.60 | 8 | no | yes | -2.83% | -1.30% | |
| Q3 | $0.70 | -0.10% | $89.45 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.87% | -0.55% | |
| Q2 | $0.70 | -0.74% | $79.33 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.25% | -2.26% | |
| Q1 | $0.69 | -0.56% | $84.04 | 5 | yes | yes | -1.57% | +4.52% | |
| Q4 | $0.69 | -1.07% | $83.06 | 9 | no | yes | -3.00% | +0.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.69 | -1.07% | $81.48 | >30 | no | no | -6.95% | -2.58% | |
| Q2 | $0.69 | -0.35% | $88.32 | 7 | no | yes | -3.27% | -0.97% | |
| Q1 | $0.68 | -0.55% | $79.94 | 3 | yes | yes | -3.30% | -0.10% | |
| Q4 | $0.68 | -0.80% | $77.12 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.72% | -0.18% | |
| Q3 | $0.68 | -1.32% | $85.73 | 25 | no | yes | -6.23% | -3.24% | |
| Q2 | $0.68 | -0.99% | $89.25 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.22% | +1.32% | |
| Q1 | $0.63 | 0.04% | $106.16 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.92% | +5.11% | |
| Q4 | $0.63 | 0.45% | $99.53 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.33% | +5.07% | |
| Q3 | $0.63 | -0.27% | $128.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.83% | -2.27% | |
| Q2 | $0.63 | 0.10% | $125.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.99% | +1.01% |
- -0.78%
- +0.82%
- +4.36%
- +2.55%
- -6.07%
- -1.30%
- -0.55%
- -2.26%
- +4.52%
- +0.06%
- -2.58%
- -0.97%
- -0.10%
- -0.18%
- -3.24%
- +1.32%
- +5.11%
- +5.07%
- -2.27%
- +1.01%
MDT Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 8 | 40% | |
| 2–3 days | 4 | 20% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 5 | 25% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
MDT Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MDT's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $144.00
- After-tax dividend
- $93.60
- Slippage round-trip
- -$17.53
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$76.07
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.43%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~21.9%
MDT Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MDT ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MDT (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.50% | |
| +0.49% | |
| +0.63% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +0.76% | |
| -3.24% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.85% | |
| -0.97% | |
| -2.58% | |
| +0.06% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.88% | |
| +0.78% | |
| -1.30% | |
| +0.79% | |
| +0.82% | |
| +0.75% | |
| +0.82% | |
| -0.78% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.