MDU Resources Group (MDU) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 19 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.71), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MDU sits roughly in line with the Industrials sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 10, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 100%+5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.71+0.52 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 19 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.71 | +0.52 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.59% | -0.24pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 55% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.85% | +0.18pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 13 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
| Dividend | $0.14 |
| Per-event yield | 0.67% |
| Annualized yield | 2.68% |
| Previously paid | Mar 12, 2026 ($0.14) |
| Last record date | Mar 12, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 1, 2026 |
MDU Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for MDU Resources Group (MDU). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | $0.14 | -1.14% | $20.97 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.49% | -2.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.14 | -0.30% | $19.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.66% | -1.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.14 | -0.79% | $16.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.02% | -1.16% | |
| Q2 | $0.13 | -1.01% | $16.84 | 13 | no | yes | -5.11% | -4.28% | |
| Q1 | $0.13 | -0.78% | $16.69 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.92% | +2.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.13 | -0.21% | $19.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.66% | -4.93% | |
| Q3 | $0.13 | 0.14% | $13.88 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.00% | +7.13% | |
| Q2 | $0.13 | -0.79% | $13.85 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.68% | +1.91% | |
| Q1 | $0.13 | -0.39% | $12.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.23% | +0.20% | |
| Q4 | $0.13 | -0.56% | $10.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.93% | +2.85% | |
| Q3 | $0.13 | -0.27% | $10.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.65% | +4.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | -0.95% | $11.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.34% | -0.67% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | -0.51% | $11.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.40% | -3.20% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | -0.69% | $11.66 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.63% | +1.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | -1.06% | $11.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.95% | +2.37% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | -0.94% | $10.59 | 12 | no | yes | -9.54% | -4.46% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | 0.81% | $9.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.24% | +1.80% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | -0.92% | $10.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.47% | +5.57% | |
| Q3 | $0.21 | -0.92% | $12.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.49% | +0.10% | |
| Q2 | $0.21 | -0.94% | $12.75 | >30 | no | no | -8.86% | -1.31% |
- -2.05%
- -1.88%
- -1.16%
- -4.28%
- +2.94%
- -4.93%
- +7.13%
- +1.91%
- +0.20%
- +2.85%
- +4.35%
- -0.67%
- -3.20%
- +1.91%
- +2.37%
- -4.46%
- +1.80%
- +5.57%
- +0.10%
- -1.31%
MDU Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 1 | 5% |
MDU Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MDU's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $28.00
- After-tax dividend
- $18.20
- Slippage round-trip
- -$4.19
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$14.01
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.33%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~16.8%
MDU Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MDU ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MDU (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| -1.31% | |
| +1.77% | |
| +2.00% | |
| +2.20% | |
| -4.46% | |
| +1.93% | |
| +1.91% | |
| +1.89% | |
| +1.93% | |
| +1.15% | |
| +1.17% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.78% | |
| -4.28% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.67% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.