MDU dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
MDU Resources Group (MDU) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.69), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MDU sits roughly in line with the Utilities sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Sep 10, 2026 (±0 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.69
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.69 | +0.23 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.56% | +0.12pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.67% | in line with sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 13 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±0 days.
Dividend
$0.14
Per-event yield
0.66%
Annualized yield
2.68%
Previously paid
Jun 11, 2026 ($0.14)
Last record date
Jun 11, 2026
Last payment date
Jul 1, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for MDU Resources Group (MDU). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.14 | 0.09% | $21.14 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.80% | +1.37% | |
| Q1 | $0.14 | -1.14% | $20.97 | 2 | yes | yes | -6.49% | -2.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.14 | -0.30% | $19.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.66% | -1.88% | |
| Q3 | $0.14 | -0.79% | $16.42 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.02% | -1.16% | |
| Q2 | $0.13 | -1.01% | $16.84 | 13 | no | yes | -5.11% | -4.28% | |
| Q1 | $0.13 | -0.78% | $16.69 | 2 | yes | yes | -1.92% | +2.94% | |
| Q4 | $0.13 | -0.21% | $19.05 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.66% | -4.93% | |
| Q3 | $0.13 | 0.14% | $13.88 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.00% | +7.13% | |
| Q2 | $0.13 | -0.79% | $13.85 | 4 | yes | yes | -3.68% | +1.91% | |
| Q1 | $0.13 | -0.39% | $12.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.23% | +0.20% | |
| Q4 | $0.13 | -0.56% | $10.70 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.93% | +2.85% | |
| Q3 | $0.13 | -0.28% | $10.91 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.65% | +4.35% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | -0.95% | $11.53 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.34% | -0.67% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | -0.51% | $11.79 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.40% | -3.20% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | -0.69% | $11.66 | 2 | yes | yes | -4.63% | +1.91% | |
| Q3 | $0.22 | -1.06% | $11.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.95% | +2.37% | |
| Q2 | $0.22 | -0.94% | $10.59 | 12 | no | yes | -9.54% | -4.46% | |
| Q1 | $0.22 | 0.81% | $9.88 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.24% | +1.80% | |
| Q4 | $0.22 | -0.92% | $10.90 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.47% | +5.57% | |
| Q3 | $0.21 | -0.92% | $12.01 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.49% | +0.10% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 14 | 70% | |
| 2–3 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 2 | 10% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with MDU's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical MDU ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.72%
Win rate (20 trades)
90%
Cumulative P&L
+14.37%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+101.83%
Best event
+2.20%
Worst event
-4.46%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MDU (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +1.77% | |
| +2.00% | |
| +2.20% | |
| -4.46% | |
| +1.93% | |
| +1.91% | |
| +1.89% | |
| +1.93% | |
| +1.15% | |
| +1.17% | |
| +0.98% | |
| +0.90% | |
| +0.94% | |
| +0.68% | |
| +0.78% | |
| -4.28% | |
| +0.85% | |
| +0.71% | |
| +0.67% | |
| +0.66% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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