Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MDU is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$6.23
Method range
$5.83 – $21.00
median $8.71
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $6.23 | -70.84% |
| Exit multiple | $5.83 | -72.71% |
| Analyst target | $21.00 | -1.69% |
| Graham number | $11.19 | -47.63% |
- Forward DCF$6.23
- Exit multiple$5.83
- Analyst target$21.00
- Graham number$11.19
Stock price
$21.36
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.28
3Y FCF CAGR
—
Fair value @ hist. growth
$11.00
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
16.2%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -94.1% vs hist-growth DCF
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 8% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 13.2% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 4.8% |
| 5.5% | 15.3% | 13.9% | 12.4% | 10.5% | 8.3% |
| 6.5% | 18.5% | 17.5% | 16.2% | 14.9% | 13.3% |
| 7.5% | 21.4% | 20.5% | 19.5% | 18.5% | 17.2% |
| 8.5% | 24.1% | 23.3% | 22.5% | 21.6% | 20.6% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
2.44
Demanding vs growth
Net debt
$2.7B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.40
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
MDU Resources Group (MDU) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
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