Fair value (multi-method)
Four independent methods triangulate what MDU is worth. The headline is the Forward-DCF intrinsic value at a normalized growth rate; the margin of safety compares it to the current price.
Estimated fair value (Forward DCF)
$6.22
Method range
$5.81 – $23.00
median $8.70
Valuation methods
Each method’s implied fair value per share and its upside versus the current price. Missing methods (no analyst coverage, negative earnings, etc.) are shown as “—”.
| Method | Fair value | Upside vs price |
|---|---|---|
| Forward DCF | $6.22 | -70.54% |
| Exit multiple | $5.81 | -72.48% |
| Analyst target | $23.00 | +8.95% |
| Graham number | $11.19 | -47.01% |
- Forward DCF$6.22
- Exit multiple$5.81
- Analyst target$23.00
- Graham number$11.19
Stock price
$21.11
FCF / share (TTM)
$0.28
3Y FCF CAGR
—
Fair value @ hist. growth
$10.98
This analysis is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Scenario prices and DCF-style figures depend on your assumptions and data from public filings and estimates. They are not forecasts of future returns.
Implied FCF growth
16.1%
per year over your projection horizon
Margin of safety -92.3% vs hist-growth DCF
Model inputs
Move sliders to test how the reverse DCF reacts. Historical-growth markers show where the company has actually grown over the last cycle.
Undiscounted FCF per share over 10 years at 8% annual growth.
Sensitivity — implied growth vs your assumptions
Each cell shows the per-share growth rate the market would need to justify the current price at that combination of discount rate (rows) and terminal growth (columns). Your selected inputs are highlighted.
| Row axis: discount rate. Column axis: terminal growth.Terminal g →↓ Discount | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0% | 13.1% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 4.6% |
| 5.6% | 15.1% | 13.8% | 12.3% | 10.4% | 8.3% |
| 6.6% | 18.4% | 17.3% | 16.1% | 14.8% | 13.2% |
| 7.6% | 21.3% | 20.4% | 19.4% | 18.3% | 17.1% |
| 8.6% | 23.9% | 23.2% | 22.3% | 21.4% | 20.4% |
Historical multiples
Each bar is the trailing five-year range (low left, high right). Filled portion runs from low to today; the dot marks today; the small tick marks the five-year median. Low, median, and high are listed under each bar.
PEG
2.46
Demanding vs growth
Net debt
$2.71B
Total debt − cash
Beta
0.38
Vs market benchmark
Frequently asked questions
MDU Resources Group (MDU) Key Financials
Charts, filings, and peer comparison for every metric
Explore more
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
- Buybacks
- Dividend Profile2.65% yield
- Dividend Calculator
- Dividend Forecast
- Dividend Capture
- Stock Split History8 splits
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.