McCormick & Company (MKC) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 90% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.25), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MKC sits roughly in line with the Consumer Defensive sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Jul 25, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
- Touch rate (30d)
- 90%-5pp vs sector
- Median days-to-touch
- 1din line with sector
- Signal-to-noise
- 0.25-0.14 vs sector
Recovery engine
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 90% | -5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.25 | -0.14 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.52% | +0.12pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 50% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -3.22% | +0.90pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 18 | — |
Next ex-dividend
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
| Dividend | $0.48 |
| Per-event yield | 0.88% |
| Annualized yield | 3.52% |
| Previously paid | Apr 20, 2026 ($0.48) |
| Last record date | Apr 20, 2026 |
| Last payment date | Apr 27, 2026 |
MKC Dividend Capture History — Last 20 Ex-Dividend Events
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday high at or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for McCormick & Company (MKC). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 | $0.48 | -1.20% | $54.33 | >30 | no | no | -8.01% | -6.35% | |
| Q4 | $0.48 | -0.64% | $68.93 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.82% | -3.05% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | -1.09% | $65.36 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.94% | +3.06% | |
| Q3 | $0.45 | -0.67% | $75.15 | >30 | no | no | -6.08% | -3.65% | |
| Q2 | $0.45 | -1.61% | $76.46 | 1 | yes | yes | -7.39% | +2.08% | |
| Q4 | $0.45 | -0.74% | $77.05 | 18 | no | yes | -9.09% | -2.96% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | -0.87% | $80.61 | 6 | no | yes | -1.89% | +1.07% | |
| Q3 | $0.42 | -0.28% | $70.88 | 3 | yes | yes | -2.65% | +3.23% | |
| Q2 | $0.42 | -0.62% | $76.41 | 15 | no | yes | -6.61% | -5.54% | |
| Q4 | $0.42 | -0.53% | $68.21 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.94% | -0.81% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | -0.66% | $65.39 | 15 | no | yes | -9.57% | -6.13% | |
| Q3 | $0.39 | -0.65% | $85.71 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.23% | +0.53% | |
| Q2 | $0.39 | -0.20% | $85.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.45% | +0.08% | |
| Q4 | $0.39 | 0.00% | $83.24 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.81% | +4.14% | |
| Q4 | $0.37 | -0.35% | $72.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.66% | +2.04% | |
| Q3 | $0.37 | -0.45% | $82.68 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.17% | -0.69% | |
| Q2 | $0.37 | 0.01% | $102.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.95% | -2.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.37 | 0.08% | $95.62 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.53% | +1.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.34 | -0.04% | $80.43 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.21% | -0.57% | |
| Q3 | $0.34 | 0.09% | $87.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.11% | +1.33% |
- -6.35%
- -3.05%
- +3.06%
- -3.65%
- +2.08%
- -2.96%
- +1.07%
- +3.23%
- -5.54%
- -0.81%
- -6.13%
- +0.53%
- +0.08%
- +4.14%
- +2.04%
- -0.69%
- -2.30%
- +1.30%
- -0.57%
- +1.33%
MKC Pre-Ex Touch Time Distribution
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 13 | 65% | |
| 2–3 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 4–5 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 6–10 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 11–30 days | 3 | 15% | |
| 30+ | 2 | 10% |
MKC Dividend Capture Calculator — After-Tax Yield
Pre-filled with MKC's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
- Gross dividend
- $96.00
- After-tax dividend
- $62.40
- Slippage round-trip
- -$10.87
- Net if price returns to pre-ex
- +$51.53
- Required recovery to break even
- 0.00%
- Per-event after-tax yield
- +0.47%
- Annual if all succeed
- ~23.9%
MKC Dividend Capture Backtest Simulator
Replay every historical MKC ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover dots for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MKC (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.39% | |
| +0.42% | |
| +0.39% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.47% | |
| +0.46% | |
| +0.46% | |
| -6.13% | |
| +0.62% | |
| -5.54% | |
| +0.59% | |
| +1.07% | |
| -2.96% | |
| +0.59% | |
| -3.65% | |
| +0.69% | |
| +0.70% | |
| -6.35% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.