MRSH dividend capture — median 1d pre-ex touch, 100% /30d touch rate over 20 ex-dates. Next ex-date, event history, after-tax calculator & simulator.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
Marsh & McLennan Companies (MRSH) has touched its pre-ex close within 30 trading days in 100% of the last 20 ex-dividend events, with a median time-to-touch of 1 trading day (limit-order recovery basis). The dividend is below the typical daily price swing (signal-to-noise 0.23), meaning ordinary day-to-day noise can easily exceed the dividend itself.
Versus its sector, MRSH sits roughly in line with the Financial Services sector benchmark of 95%. The sector median time-to-touch is 1 trading day, matching the peer pace.
Historical base rates are not predictions; transaction costs, slippage, and ordinary-income tax on short holding periods can materially reduce realized profit. The next ex-dividend date is estimated at Oct 19, 2026 (±7 days), based on the historical pattern; the company has not yet declared a dividend.
Touch rate (30d)
100%
Median days-to-touch
1d
Signal-to-noise
0.23
TL;DR over the most recent 20 events.
| Metric | Value | vs sector |
|---|---|---|
| 30-day touch rate | 100% | +5pp vs sector |
| Median days-to-touch | 1d | in line with sector |
| Signal-to-noise (div / ATR) | 0.23 | -0.07 vs sector |
| Avg gap on ex-date | -0.09% | +0.50pp vs sector |
| Win rate at MOC exit | 60% | — |
| Median drawdown during hold | -2.05% | +2.35pp vs sector |
| Best / worst touch (days) | 1 / 12 | — |
Estimated from historical pattern ±7 days.
Dividend
$0.99
Per-event yield
0.56%
Annualized yield
2.09%
Previously paid
Jul 23, 2026 ($0.99)
Last record date
Jul 23, 2026
Last payment date
Aug 14, 2026
Per-event gap on ex-date, the pre-ex close used as the touch target, trading days to first intraday highat or above that level, plus 5/30-day touch flags, drawdown and 5-day P&L for Marsh & McLennan Companies (MRSH). For a stricter close-at-bell exit timeline, use the simulator below (MOC mode). td = trading days from ex-date.
| Recovered 5d | Recovered 30d | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 | $0.99 | 0.05% | $175.99 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.80% | +9.38% | |
| Q2 | $0.90 | -1.39% | $175.81 | 5 | yes | yes | -6.11% | +4.36% | |
| Q1 | $0.90 | 2.42% | $178.18 | 1 | yes | yes | -4.15% | +5.74% | |
| Q4 | $0.90 | -1.12% | $201.29 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.73% | +2.79% | |
| Q3 | $0.90 | -0.51% | $209.80 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.45% | -4.62% | |
| Q2 | $0.82 | -0.54% | $243.64 | 1 | yes | yes | -10.80% | -5.77% | |
| Q1 | $0.82 | 1.91% | $219.31 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.07% | +3.42% | |
| Q4 | $0.82 | -0.51% | $221.86 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.28% | +1.81% | |
| Q3 | $0.82 | -0.04% | $217.48 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.09% | +3.65% | |
| Q2 | $0.71 | -0.36% | $203.08 | 1 | yes | yes | -3.40% | -0.59% | |
| Q1 | $0.71 | -0.01% | $199.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -5.43% | -2.30% | |
| Q4 | $0.71 | 0.00% | $191.12 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.17% | +0.27% | |
| Q3 | $0.71 | -0.29% | $193.40 | 12 | no | yes | -3.15% | -0.87% | |
| Q2 | $0.59 | 0.00% | $168.63 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.06% | +1.21% | |
| Q1 | $0.59 | -0.86% | $173.49 | 1 | yes | yes | -2.03% | +1.48% | |
| Q4 | $0.59 | -0.61% | $159.23 | 1 | yes | yes | -6.96% | -1.66% | |
| Q3 | $0.59 | -0.13% | $155.81 | 1 | yes | yes | -0.40% | +6.53% | |
| Q2 | $0.54 | -0.42% | $171.10 | 1 | yes | yes | -1.80% | -1.13% | |
| Q1 | $0.54 | 0.11% | $156.65 | 1 | yes | yes | -8.84% | -0.86% | |
| Q4 | $0.54 | 0.59% | $155.25 | 1 | yes | yes | 0.23% | +3.84% |
First trading session whose intraday high reached the pre-ex close within the 30-day measurement window. td = trading days from ex-date.
| Touch window | Distribution | Count | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 1 day | 18 | 90% | |
| 2–3 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 4–5 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 6–10 days | 0 | 0% | |
| 11–30 days | 1 | 5% | |
| 30+ | 0 | 0% |
Pre-filled with MRSH's next expected dividend and recent close. Adjust tax rate, holding period and slippage to estimate after-tax capture yield.
U.S. ordinary-income rate (22-37%) applies on holds shorter than 61 days. Hold longer to qualify for the 0/15/20% qualified-dividend rate.
Replay every historical MRSH ex-dividend with two exit strategies: a GTC limit-order at the pre-ex close, or hold for N days and exit at MOC. Pick the window and quarter filter that matches your plan.
Linked to your history table
These backtests use the same ex-dividend rows as Dividend Capture History on this page — 20 events loaded.
Quarter filter is All — every row in the table above is included here. Change quarter below to match the slice you want to stress-test.
Sell back at the pre-ex close on the first intraday touch within the window. If it never touches, exit at MOC after the window expires (stop-loss).
Figures are gross — before tax, commissions, and slippage. Percents are per-event return on capital at entry (pre-ex close).
Avg P&L per trade (20 events)
+0.33%
Win rate (20 trades)
95%
Cumulative P&L
+6.55%
Buy & hold (same sample)
+23.06%
Best event
+0.56%
Worst event
-0.87%
Cumulative P&L (equity curve)
Vertical axis: cumulative sum of per-event % (same units as the headline cumulative). Hover the line for exact values.
Per-event P&L distribution
20 trades in this sample · bar height ∝ count in each bucket (gross % per event).
Scenario P&L by event · MRSH (20)
Scenario P&L — updates with exit mode, window, and quarter. History adds gap, touch, drawdown, and a fixed P&L 5d % (MOC). Same per-row % as that column only for MOC + 5d on the same rows. Oldest → newest, gross pre-ex close basis.
| Ex-date | P&L |
|---|---|
| +0.34% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.31% | |
| +0.38% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.34% | |
| +0.35% | |
| -0.87% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.36% | |
| +0.35% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.37% | |
| +0.33% | |
| +0.43% | |
| +0.45% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.51% | |
| +0.56% |
Results are illustrative only and are not financial advice. Capture simulations use historical prices and simplified costs and tax assumptions. Actual fills, borrow fees, and market rules vary. Consult a qualified advisor before trading.
Deep-dives across the income statement, cash flow, capital return, and valuation
How this company returns cash to shareholders — buybacks, dividends, and stock splits.
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